I found a great visual guide to the current financial shake up. It doesn't include everything (it stops going down the rabbit hole at 'falling home prices') but it does illustrate the amount to which a flawed narrative can cascade through the system, causing a illusion of prosperity. I call this system the 'free market' in all of its iterations, both up and down
Click here for the link
http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/
I think what we're seeing a two-fold development: the (potential) on-going failure of narratives that don't include or take into account peak oil. And two, (potentially) the beginning of the failure of our cultural narrative of progress. I don't want to sound the funeral bell for this idea of 'progress' quite yet, but overall its not looking good. The market will probably rebound at some point, and the economy as well. The question is what ceiling of economic activity will cause energy prices to skyrocket again? In the coming decades that ceiling will be getting lower and lower, and the lowest price of energy will get higher and higher.
Wednesday, November 26, 2008
Wednesday, November 19, 2008
Solar Panelists for December
The December 10th meeting will feature a discussion on Solar Panels. We'll have Solar Panel Installers presenting, as well as someone from Austin Energy talking about the solar energy rebate.
Looking ahead to January, we'd like to invite neighborhood and local action groups into our meeting. Our goal is find out where our interests overlap and what action can be mutual action. Certainly, there is power in numbers.
Looking ahead to January, we'd like to invite neighborhood and local action groups into our meeting. Our goal is find out where our interests overlap and what action can be mutual action. Certainly, there is power in numbers.
Saturday, November 15, 2008
Speaker Michael J Osborne of Austin Energy
Michael J Osborne, of Austin Energy, was kind enough to stop by our monthly meeting and say a few words about Austin Energy's efforts to lead the way in energy efficiency, and how the organization is charting its way into the 21st century - a century sure to be marked by energy scarcity rather than abundance.
I thought the most interesting part of his presentation was talking about a vision of replacing the current 'base load' of energy - the fraction of power plants that are always 'on' - with renewable energy. Slowly, of course and perhaps that base load will always include a fraction of traditional energy. This to me really seems to be moving past the rhetoric, moving past the ideals espoused by so many in the peak oil movement, and getting down to brass tacks -- exactly HOW we are going to make the transition from traditional energy into renewables.
Talking about wind and solar power in Texas, this is a reality happening NOW. Of course my belief is that renewables will NOT allow us to live as we are right now ... conservation and 'cutting back' will HAVE TO be a part of our future energy use. But the future won't be the dark ages, we will use some form of energy to heat our homes and to power mechanical devices -- as humanity has always done.
I think the choice is between saying the future will be awful, which inspires fearful complacency -- and saying that we can use our immense bank of fossil fuels to build an infrastructure of renenwable energy - wind farms, solar panels etc.
The peak oil movement needs to take a cue from Al Gore - that narrative MATTERS. Immensely. The peak oil movement needs to coalesce behind a narrative, not for the sake of conformity, but for the sake of DOING SOMETHING rather than simply being helpless seers of an energy-poor future.
I thought the most interesting part of his presentation was talking about a vision of replacing the current 'base load' of energy - the fraction of power plants that are always 'on' - with renewable energy. Slowly, of course and perhaps that base load will always include a fraction of traditional energy. This to me really seems to be moving past the rhetoric, moving past the ideals espoused by so many in the peak oil movement, and getting down to brass tacks -- exactly HOW we are going to make the transition from traditional energy into renewables.
Talking about wind and solar power in Texas, this is a reality happening NOW. Of course my belief is that renewables will NOT allow us to live as we are right now ... conservation and 'cutting back' will HAVE TO be a part of our future energy use. But the future won't be the dark ages, we will use some form of energy to heat our homes and to power mechanical devices -- as humanity has always done.
I think the choice is between saying the future will be awful, which inspires fearful complacency -- and saying that we can use our immense bank of fossil fuels to build an infrastructure of renenwable energy - wind farms, solar panels etc.
The peak oil movement needs to take a cue from Al Gore - that narrative MATTERS. Immensely. The peak oil movement needs to coalesce behind a narrative, not for the sake of conformity, but for the sake of DOING SOMETHING rather than simply being helpless seers of an energy-poor future.
Wednesday, October 22, 2008
Oil at $67?
Who knew that oil could possibly go this low? I'm sure that many in the peak oil community are a little shocked by this recent development in oil prices. I think we judge the credibility of informational sources by their predictive ability, and certainly 'peak oil' as concept has taken hit in the last few weeks especially. Looking at oil prices seems to bear that theory out, but looking at the larger context of the economy reveals a new wrinkle in the peak oil story.
I think the latest conceptual thinking of peak oil theory has been enumerated by John Michael Greer, who wrote "The Long Descent". It's a great work on peak oil, and somewhat of a departure from the norm of peak oil discourse.
The most important point that he makes is the idea of 'living through history -- that is, the human conception of time, and the truncated timelines of our history texts. This might sounds tangential to the topic of peak oil until we examine the narrative of the peak oil movement: collapse, disaster, starvation, famine, war, failed economy, etc. Not to say that these events won't happen, but we will probably be hard-pressed to link these disparate events back to the over-arching theme of peak oil.
Ultimately our experience, our lived experience will not be a sudden moment of calamity followed by an 'ah-ha' realization that peak oil is the man behind the curtain...rather we will experience decline, unyielding and progressive, followed by period of 'recovery' once again leading to decline. The slow parabolic unraveling of the 'western' mode of life.
To bring it back to the price of oil, why is oil at $67 a barrel, and still falling? We have perhaps entered one of the first of many 'minor calamities', the small disasters that will bleed western economies by 1,000 cuts. Its no mistake that oil hit $147 a barrel before it began its steady decline, we are likely to see each period of decline start out with rapidly inflating oil prices, as the recovery phase seems like it will restore the lost wealth and prestige of our economy. But this is an illusion, as the era of easy energy, and easy, cheap 'work' that it did for us are over. Now the true cost of oil will become more and more apparent before the economy sinks once again and oil prices are slashed along with falling demand.
I think the latest conceptual thinking of peak oil theory has been enumerated by John Michael Greer, who wrote "The Long Descent". It's a great work on peak oil, and somewhat of a departure from the norm of peak oil discourse.
The most important point that he makes is the idea of 'living through history -- that is, the human conception of time, and the truncated timelines of our history texts. This might sounds tangential to the topic of peak oil until we examine the narrative of the peak oil movement: collapse, disaster, starvation, famine, war, failed economy, etc. Not to say that these events won't happen, but we will probably be hard-pressed to link these disparate events back to the over-arching theme of peak oil.
Ultimately our experience, our lived experience will not be a sudden moment of calamity followed by an 'ah-ha' realization that peak oil is the man behind the curtain...rather we will experience decline, unyielding and progressive, followed by period of 'recovery' once again leading to decline. The slow parabolic unraveling of the 'western' mode of life.
To bring it back to the price of oil, why is oil at $67 a barrel, and still falling? We have perhaps entered one of the first of many 'minor calamities', the small disasters that will bleed western economies by 1,000 cuts. Its no mistake that oil hit $147 a barrel before it began its steady decline, we are likely to see each period of decline start out with rapidly inflating oil prices, as the recovery phase seems like it will restore the lost wealth and prestige of our economy. But this is an illusion, as the era of easy energy, and easy, cheap 'work' that it did for us are over. Now the true cost of oil will become more and more apparent before the economy sinks once again and oil prices are slashed along with falling demand.
Friday, August 29, 2008
Public Transit
From the Steering Committee meeting: Crude Awakening will begin to focus more of its attention on public transit, as an actionable outgrowth of the peak oil problem.
Peak Oil is beginning to be evident in the prices especially of gasoline, and high prices are causing all sorts of behavioral changes, most notable is a increased reliance on public transit, biking and walking. Thus a focus on enhancing existing networks of efficient transportation seems to be a good use of the group's energy, and a sensible response to the problem of Peak Oil in Austin, Texas.
This does not mean of course that Crude Awakening will neglect other aspects of the Peak Oil problem...certainly plenty needs to be accounted for. It does mean however that Crude Awakening recognizes that in addition to personal preparation, that the entire community needs to work together for solutions, and that solutions that only involve individuals will be inadequate to ensure a smooth transition to a more efficient, less energy-intense mode of living.
Peak Oil is beginning to be evident in the prices especially of gasoline, and high prices are causing all sorts of behavioral changes, most notable is a increased reliance on public transit, biking and walking. Thus a focus on enhancing existing networks of efficient transportation seems to be a good use of the group's energy, and a sensible response to the problem of Peak Oil in Austin, Texas.
This does not mean of course that Crude Awakening will neglect other aspects of the Peak Oil problem...certainly plenty needs to be accounted for. It does mean however that Crude Awakening recognizes that in addition to personal preparation, that the entire community needs to work together for solutions, and that solutions that only involve individuals will be inadequate to ensure a smooth transition to a more efficient, less energy-intense mode of living.
Monday, August 25, 2008
Twitter as an Organizing Tool
Crude Awakening is on twitter: @crudeawakening . Twitter is SMS/Web updates about the status of our organization. To receive Crude Awakening's updates to your phone (information about local meetings, field trips, conferences and peak oil news) simply text this message (minus the quotes): "follow crudeawakening" to the phone number 4040-4 . It will ask you for a user name - text one back and you are set getting updates to your phone. Please be aware of your texting package because twitter isn't totally free on that end...
If you aren't familiar with Twitter, you should be. A free SMS/Texting tool, if twitter seems totally pointless its because organizations haven't yet taken advantage of twitter on a large scale...at least they haven't gotten much attention for doing so. Many large news organizations are on Twitter, and Barack Obama recently announced Joe Biden as his vice president via Twitter.
Twitter allows one person from a phone OR from the web to send out announcements to anyone "following" them. The advantage of using Twitter over regular texting is that you don't need to know everyone's phone number, and you can be "followed" by people you've never met. In this way Twitter allows a two-way flow of followers, rather than the 'traditional' method of having to collect numbers or email addresses.
From a designer's standpoint Twitter is great because it allows you to totally customize the background image for the page...something that myspace allows, but not anyone else (not facebook, not meetup...) This might sound like a detail, but when it comes to branding its important especially in the age of such diversified branding spaces (social networks).
The Oil Drum @theoildrum is on Twitter, and I'm sure other peak oil sites aren't far behind. I think one of the biggest barriers to adoption of this technology by peak oil groups is a reluctance to embrace new technology in general -- because of a fear that it might go away soon. While those fears may or may not be justified (I would wager they are) we live in the present moment. And in this moment, Twitter is a great technology and a great way to organize. So let's get over it. Oil's going away but we still drive...so let's use the 'now' to prepare for the 'soon'.
If you aren't familiar with Twitter, you should be. A free SMS/Texting tool, if twitter seems totally pointless its because organizations haven't yet taken advantage of twitter on a large scale...at least they haven't gotten much attention for doing so. Many large news organizations are on Twitter, and Barack Obama recently announced Joe Biden as his vice president via Twitter.
Twitter allows one person from a phone OR from the web to send out announcements to anyone "following" them. The advantage of using Twitter over regular texting is that you don't need to know everyone's phone number, and you can be "followed" by people you've never met. In this way Twitter allows a two-way flow of followers, rather than the 'traditional' method of having to collect numbers or email addresses.
From a designer's standpoint Twitter is great because it allows you to totally customize the background image for the page...something that myspace allows, but not anyone else (not facebook, not meetup...) This might sound like a detail, but when it comes to branding its important especially in the age of such diversified branding spaces (social networks).
The Oil Drum @theoildrum is on Twitter, and I'm sure other peak oil sites aren't far behind. I think one of the biggest barriers to adoption of this technology by peak oil groups is a reluctance to embrace new technology in general -- because of a fear that it might go away soon. While those fears may or may not be justified (I would wager they are) we live in the present moment. And in this moment, Twitter is a great technology and a great way to organize. So let's get over it. Oil's going away but we still drive...so let's use the 'now' to prepare for the 'soon'.
Sunday, August 24, 2008
Motorcylcing Chernobyl
Found the strangest blog -- about a woman motorcycling through Chernobyl. Apparently the radiation isn't uniform, the winds spread it unevenly across the countryside. She carries a Geiger counter with her on her motorcycle. The pictures are utterly amazing, and whats more, the stories about the men fighting the fire, and the villagers who went to watch the initial fire, totally unaware that they were looking into the burning guts of a nuclear reaction. I can't fathom going into Chernobyl on a motorcycle, but what a story!
Click here to go to her blog
Click here to go to her blog
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