Crude Awakening has undergone quite a few changes in the past few months. We've totally revamped the website, going from a static site to blogs, calendars and updating content. We changed the look, and hopefully made information easier to access. We have also give the site a new look, and we're currently working on a complete re-branding package, complete with business cards, letterhead and of course a matching website.
The next step in the evolution of crudeawakening.org is to get a variety of voices from different walks of life to comment on peak oil, on an energy-aware life, on psychology and whatever else comes up.
Please contact us at info@crudeawakening.org if you are interested
Thanks!
CrudeAwakening.org Staff
Monday, July 28, 2008
Sunday, July 27, 2008
They Finally get it?
The Mainstream Media (or MSM for those in the know) have been reporting more and more about oil, gas prices and the state of oil production in the world. And yet even as recently as a week ago, MSNBC.com could run a story about the 'end' of the energy 'bubble.' Stories about gas prices, from sources, seemed to miss the crucial detail about supply and demand. China has taken the blame for increased gas prices, even though per capita the average Chinese citizen uses 1/5 of the energy that the average US citizen uses.
Those days are over, on MSNBC.com and at the Washington Post, a new editorial era seems to be upon us: "Global Pressures Forge a New Energy Reality" trumpets the Washington Post. Citing supply and demand factors, as well as the growth of China, the Post makes the bold assertion that gas prices, particularly for those in the US, will not ever retreat back to prices seen in the late 60's or during the decade of the 1990's.
This is not exactly acknowledging peak oil, the author hems and haws in typical DC fashion, but make no mistake the article lays out the current world situation, however, without taking the next step -- that is to try and imagine a world suddenly being deprived of cheap, abundant oil.
I imagine that step has to wait for the markets, that is the short term energy traders, to catch up, and really look a year or two down the line and realize whats coming. I doubt any news organization wants to be blamed for mass panic, but given the government's total inability to do ANYTHING (see Katrina response) a small, tight feeling of panic in everyone's stomach might motivate them to go out and DO SOMETHING.
I think the real lesson here is that we in the Peak Oil community need to continue our focus on research and out reach but realize its no good waiting for others to come around. WE ARE RIGHT, and the debate is officially over. Of course, life intervenes, and theres no way to absolutely know the future -- but if you want to get a good idea of what the next 50 years will look like, then the peaking of resources available to humanity is a good place to start.
When historians look back on this age, they will probably date this century as starting in 2008 -- the first time the world is staring into the abyss. Unlike the 1970s, there is little spare capacity in the world...theres no way out of this one. The age of scarcity is upon the mainstream.
Those days are over, on MSNBC.com and at the Washington Post, a new editorial era seems to be upon us: "Global Pressures Forge a New Energy Reality" trumpets the Washington Post. Citing supply and demand factors, as well as the growth of China, the Post makes the bold assertion that gas prices, particularly for those in the US, will not ever retreat back to prices seen in the late 60's or during the decade of the 1990's.
This is not exactly acknowledging peak oil, the author hems and haws in typical DC fashion, but make no mistake the article lays out the current world situation, however, without taking the next step -- that is to try and imagine a world suddenly being deprived of cheap, abundant oil.
I imagine that step has to wait for the markets, that is the short term energy traders, to catch up, and really look a year or two down the line and realize whats coming. I doubt any news organization wants to be blamed for mass panic, but given the government's total inability to do ANYTHING (see Katrina response) a small, tight feeling of panic in everyone's stomach might motivate them to go out and DO SOMETHING.
I think the real lesson here is that we in the Peak Oil community need to continue our focus on research and out reach but realize its no good waiting for others to come around. WE ARE RIGHT, and the debate is officially over. Of course, life intervenes, and theres no way to absolutely know the future -- but if you want to get a good idea of what the next 50 years will look like, then the peaking of resources available to humanity is a good place to start.
When historians look back on this age, they will probably date this century as starting in 2008 -- the first time the world is staring into the abyss. Unlike the 1970s, there is little spare capacity in the world...theres no way out of this one. The age of scarcity is upon the mainstream.
Thursday, July 24, 2008
Energy reality
It seems that everyone is talking about $4 gasoline. There’s a lot of opinion about what is driving that, what effect it will have on our economy, will it continue to increase, what can we do to increase production, develop alternatives, etc; powerful political and industrial figures are proposing solutions to “drive down the price at the pump”. But, before we all get bent out of shape over what we pay for gasoline, we should try to get a better understanding of what the energy contained in that gallon of gasoline is worth to humans.
A fit, healthy person can generate 200 watts of power to do work; and given the right circumstances, can do that for 8 hours a day. They don’t do it leaning on their shovels, either; we’re talking about hard, grueling work.
A gallon of gasoline contains 33.530 KiloWatt-Hours of energy ( = 33530 Watt-hours), so 33,500 Watt-hours/gallon ¸ 200 Watts/person @ 168 person-hours / gallon.
So we see that there are about 168 hours of a person’s equivalent energy contained in a gallon of gasoline. That’s about equal to a month’s worth of 40 hour weeks, so the human-energy content of a gallon of gasoline is approximately equal to one month of human work.
Now, the USA consumes over 388 million gallons of gasoline per day, so 388,600,000 gallons/day * 30 days/month @ 11.658 Billion gallons/month and, 11.658 Billion gallons/month * 1 person-month/gallon @11,658,000,000 persons.
In plain language, we in the USA are utilizing a workforce of more than 11.6 billion (that’s with a B) human-energy-equivalent slaves working 40 hours per week, 52 weeks per year to fuel our trips to the mall, idle at teller machines, take business junkets, blow leaves around our neighborhoods and take cross-country vacations every year – among other things.
Gasoline is currently selling for ~ $4/gallon, so the cost of our energy slaves today is 388.6 million gallons/day * $4/gallon ¸ 11.6B persons @ 13¢/day/person. Thirteen cents per day per person. It’s no wonder that we squander an irreplaceable (therefore, priceless) resource on trivial activities, it’s too damn cheap!
A fit, healthy person can generate 200 watts of power to do work; and given the right circumstances, can do that for 8 hours a day. They don’t do it leaning on their shovels, either; we’re talking about hard, grueling work.
A gallon of gasoline contains 33.530 KiloWatt-Hours of energy ( = 33530 Watt-hours), so 33,500 Watt-hours/gallon ¸ 200 Watts/person @ 168 person-hours / gallon.
So we see that there are about 168 hours of a person’s equivalent energy contained in a gallon of gasoline. That’s about equal to a month’s worth of 40 hour weeks, so the human-energy content of a gallon of gasoline is approximately equal to one month of human work.
Now, the USA consumes over 388 million gallons of gasoline per day, so 388,600,000 gallons/day * 30 days/month @ 11.658 Billion gallons/month and, 11.658 Billion gallons/month * 1 person-month/gallon @11,658,000,000 persons.
In plain language, we in the USA are utilizing a workforce of more than 11.6 billion (that’s with a B) human-energy-equivalent slaves working 40 hours per week, 52 weeks per year to fuel our trips to the mall, idle at teller machines, take business junkets, blow leaves around our neighborhoods and take cross-country vacations every year – among other things.
Gasoline is currently selling for ~ $4/gallon, so the cost of our energy slaves today is 388.6 million gallons/day * $4/gallon ¸ 11.6B persons @ 13¢/day/person. Thirteen cents per day per person. It’s no wonder that we squander an irreplaceable (therefore, priceless) resource on trivial activities, it’s too damn cheap!
Friday, July 18, 2008
Oil Bubble? Lets not be hasty...
From MSNBC.com:
This just shows the shallowness of mainstream reporting -- and that despite the meteoric rise in oil prices over the last 6 months, that "peak oil" still has not truly transformed into a framework or paradigm for the vast majority of people.
It is also a strange thought -- that oil at $130 US a barrel would be thought of as the new bottom for oil. Whereas only a year ago oil at even $100 a barrel would have been counted as a calamity of the highest order.
I can't say where oil is going from here...focusing on the price sometimes diverts from the true issue at hand anyways. But I do know that oil at $130 a barrel is still far too cheap, and to accurately account for the massive amount of work that oil does for us -- and to ensure that our society keeps the transition momentum moving -- oil NEEDS to keep rising in price.
Despite the gloom and doom of a faltering economy, oil's rise has been slow enough to allow people to transition their habits, their mindsets and their spending. Problems will arise if oil skyrockets in price -- a sustained, even rise in price is the best case scenario for anyone who 'believes' in peak oil.
"Given the market’s inability to spark a larger rally Friday following the week’s big sell-off, is it time to declare the energy bubble over?"
[Full article]
This just shows the shallowness of mainstream reporting -- and that despite the meteoric rise in oil prices over the last 6 months, that "peak oil" still has not truly transformed into a framework or paradigm for the vast majority of people.
It is also a strange thought -- that oil at $130 US a barrel would be thought of as the new bottom for oil. Whereas only a year ago oil at even $100 a barrel would have been counted as a calamity of the highest order.
I can't say where oil is going from here...focusing on the price sometimes diverts from the true issue at hand anyways. But I do know that oil at $130 a barrel is still far too cheap, and to accurately account for the massive amount of work that oil does for us -- and to ensure that our society keeps the transition momentum moving -- oil NEEDS to keep rising in price.
Despite the gloom and doom of a faltering economy, oil's rise has been slow enough to allow people to transition their habits, their mindsets and their spending. Problems will arise if oil skyrockets in price -- a sustained, even rise in price is the best case scenario for anyone who 'believes' in peak oil.
Tuesday, July 15, 2008
Demand Destruction
Watching gas prices rise in the last few months from under 3 dollars a gallon to a nation average of around 4.10 a gallon, I keep expecting a drop in price as a result of demand destruction here in the United States. Reading articles lately has left me with the idea that even though demand destruction will occur here in the US and throughout the world, that oil prices will not dip much, and certainly not to the extent that they did during the 1980s oil glut.
The reason can be summed up by the export land model, which states that a nation's oil exports will drop faster than their production rates because the nation will use more of its own oil and therefore have less available for sale on the world market.
Thus Mexico (for example), who is experiencing fast declines of oil production, is also experiencing economic growth which is using an increasing amount of its oil domestically. I read an article here that hypothesized that Mexico will have NO oil left for export, given current trends, by the year 2010.
Mexico, the sixth largest producer of oil in the world (as of 2007) at 3.71 million barrels per day, currently accounts for imports of 1.116 million barrels per day to the United States, currently third behind Canada and Saudi Arabia. [citation]
Between 2006-2007, while Mexico's production was essentially flat, its exports decreased by 15%.[citation]
Thus, we will have to make other arrangements. And fast. Every single energy producer/exporter is going through this process and chances are that we may hit peak exports before we hit peak oil. Either way the energy available on the world market will be less and less, and perhaps much more quickly than peak oil production.
The reason can be summed up by the export land model, which states that a nation's oil exports will drop faster than their production rates because the nation will use more of its own oil and therefore have less available for sale on the world market.
Thus Mexico (for example), who is experiencing fast declines of oil production, is also experiencing economic growth which is using an increasing amount of its oil domestically. I read an article here that hypothesized that Mexico will have NO oil left for export, given current trends, by the year 2010.
Mexico, the sixth largest producer of oil in the world (as of 2007) at 3.71 million barrels per day, currently accounts for imports of 1.116 million barrels per day to the United States, currently third behind Canada and Saudi Arabia. [citation]
Between 2006-2007, while Mexico's production was essentially flat, its exports decreased by 15%.[citation]
![[citation]](http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Image:ELM_Mexico.png){kind=link}
Thus, we will have to make other arrangements. And fast. Every single energy producer/exporter is going through this process and chances are that we may hit peak exports before we hit peak oil. Either way the energy available on the world market will be less and less, and perhaps much more quickly than peak oil production.
Sunday, July 13, 2008
Break Point
I've been reading "A Thousand Barrels A Second" by Peter Tertzakian, a book about the peaking of oil production. Tertzakian introduces an interesting concept called the "Break Point", a society's re-evaluation point of an energy source.
In the past break points happened, for the most part, to coincide with the discovery of a more energy-rich, aka 'better' fuel, think of the transition of industrializing England from burning wood to burning coal, or the world-wide transition in the 19th century from whale oil to petroleum.
Of course history provides examples of break points where societies were simply unable to move to a higher source of energy / raw materials. Jerod Diamond has a couple of examples of such societies in his book "Collapse" but rather than refer to a scarcity of resources, Diamond typically seems to reference an over-abundance of people. In my mind these are one in the same problem, in our day and age we can look at the balance of population to available resources.
Our re-evaluation of petroleum hasn't nearly been hit, although we are noticing a minor change in driving habits. For the first time in 5 years, the number of miles driven in the US declined. Still our way of life is intact. I believe that in order for our society to truly re-evaluate petroleum, the price of gasoline will have to double or triple in price, as it did in 1973 and again 1979. That world was able to re-adjust its energy sources, and continue growing.
Our break point will be different. As we are approaching peak production in numerous areas (including, I believe, peak food, peak minerals, peak 'work' and peak wealth) we will also reach a break point in the American dream, the concept that anyone can be rich, the idea of perpetual growth and an ever increasing level of wealth and prosperity.
Our energy break point will quickly become a mental break point. Jimmy Carter's 'malaise' speech is mocked for its dour tone, but mark my words we will in the next 5-10 years hear a US president address exactly the same crisis of confidence, and within ourselves we will each have to reformulate (as we do many many times in our lives) exactly what it is we expect out of life and how we will exist within the limits imposed on us by our environment.
In the past break points happened, for the most part, to coincide with the discovery of a more energy-rich, aka 'better' fuel, think of the transition of industrializing England from burning wood to burning coal, or the world-wide transition in the 19th century from whale oil to petroleum.
Of course history provides examples of break points where societies were simply unable to move to a higher source of energy / raw materials. Jerod Diamond has a couple of examples of such societies in his book "Collapse" but rather than refer to a scarcity of resources, Diamond typically seems to reference an over-abundance of people. In my mind these are one in the same problem, in our day and age we can look at the balance of population to available resources.
Our re-evaluation of petroleum hasn't nearly been hit, although we are noticing a minor change in driving habits. For the first time in 5 years, the number of miles driven in the US declined. Still our way of life is intact. I believe that in order for our society to truly re-evaluate petroleum, the price of gasoline will have to double or triple in price, as it did in 1973 and again 1979. That world was able to re-adjust its energy sources, and continue growing.
Our break point will be different. As we are approaching peak production in numerous areas (including, I believe, peak food, peak minerals, peak 'work' and peak wealth) we will also reach a break point in the American dream, the concept that anyone can be rich, the idea of perpetual growth and an ever increasing level of wealth and prosperity.
Our energy break point will quickly become a mental break point. Jimmy Carter's 'malaise' speech is mocked for its dour tone, but mark my words we will in the next 5-10 years hear a US president address exactly the same crisis of confidence, and within ourselves we will each have to reformulate (as we do many many times in our lives) exactly what it is we expect out of life and how we will exist within the limits imposed on us by our environment.
Friday, July 11, 2008
Recovery is 6 months away...
I'm getting sick of reading quotes like these:
The problem of course is that stories like these lull us into a trance of thinking that recovery, like so many times in the past, is just over the horizon.
Its time to face the music. Its time to stop kidding ourselves and accept that economic decline rather than growth will indelibly mark the 21rst century, but that 'growth' and 'decline' are relative terms. If we keep our head about us, we can redefine growth. Growth means having more time in our lives instead of less. Growth means physical strength rather than obesity. Growth means re-discovering a spiritual connection. Growth means accepting natural limits of ecology, of nature and of human ingenuity instead of denying those things.
But growth requires humility in the face of limits, and articles like the one that appeared at www.msnbc.com do not guide us towards humility rather they lead us down the dangerous path of illusion and delusion.
Let's accept whats coming and stop accepting without comment those viewpoints who would try and pacify our will to change.
'Despite the negative [economic] numbers, "the worst of the hemorrhaging is behind us" and a modest recovery is likely to take shape next year, said Bernard Baumohl, managing director of the Economic Outlook Group.'This is the fiction we are sold, that recovery is looming on the horizon even as more and more signs point to unsustainable exploitation of natural resources, to declining energy supplies and ultimately to a period of sustained economic decline.
Full Article
The problem of course is that stories like these lull us into a trance of thinking that recovery, like so many times in the past, is just over the horizon.
Its time to face the music. Its time to stop kidding ourselves and accept that economic decline rather than growth will indelibly mark the 21rst century, but that 'growth' and 'decline' are relative terms. If we keep our head about us, we can redefine growth. Growth means having more time in our lives instead of less. Growth means physical strength rather than obesity. Growth means re-discovering a spiritual connection. Growth means accepting natural limits of ecology, of nature and of human ingenuity instead of denying those things.
But growth requires humility in the face of limits, and articles like the one that appeared at www.msnbc.com do not guide us towards humility rather they lead us down the dangerous path of illusion and delusion.
Let's accept whats coming and stop accepting without comment those viewpoints who would try and pacify our will to change.
Wednesday, July 9, 2008
Preparation for Peak Oil?
I've talked to many people about preparation for the manifestations of Peak Oil in the U.S., in Texas, in Austin. I've known about peak oil for around 4 years, but haven't given much thought to serious preparation. Now that it seems like an accelerating reality, I've been talking to people more and more about how to prepare, and I've come up with a basic plan that takes into account my 'meager' income and savings, and the fact that I live in a rented apartment.
Being a single guy and in relatively good health and physical shape, I think that the most important things for me to think about are my psychological health, and short term, 1-3 month needs in case of an emergency. That means thinking about storing food and water to sustain me, having cooking materials and water filtration systems, thinking about my personal safety and security, as well as the security of my belongings.
After having taken care of the physical aspect (food water etc) which I think is #1 no question, I need to tackle the element that I think is less appreciated, but that will, in the long run, be most important: my psychological well being.
The response to a crisis (which I believe will be a short-lived but serious break down in services, food delivery etc) will either be panic leading to poor decisions, or apathy leading to inaction. I believe mental rehearsals for such an emergency to be important, as well as concrete plans to deal with situations that may arise.
In reading other blogs + articles about peak oil, I keep seeing the idea of "flexibility". Our plans need to be flexible, our power sources need to be flexible, our psychological make up needs to be flexible.
That doesn't mean a lack of commitment, it simply means fostering an ability to adapt. And this of course is different for everyone, but I think if people take an honest look at their lives, they will realize how brittle most of the systems they depend on. Much of this can't be helped, hence preparation in terms of food storage etc. But certainly our concept of ourselves as committed to one and only one way of life, to one mode of living needs to change, and change fast.
Being a single guy and in relatively good health and physical shape, I think that the most important things for me to think about are my psychological health, and short term, 1-3 month needs in case of an emergency. That means thinking about storing food and water to sustain me, having cooking materials and water filtration systems, thinking about my personal safety and security, as well as the security of my belongings.
After having taken care of the physical aspect (food water etc) which I think is #1 no question, I need to tackle the element that I think is less appreciated, but that will, in the long run, be most important: my psychological well being.
The response to a crisis (which I believe will be a short-lived but serious break down in services, food delivery etc) will either be panic leading to poor decisions, or apathy leading to inaction. I believe mental rehearsals for such an emergency to be important, as well as concrete plans to deal with situations that may arise.
In reading other blogs + articles about peak oil, I keep seeing the idea of "flexibility". Our plans need to be flexible, our power sources need to be flexible, our psychological make up needs to be flexible.
That doesn't mean a lack of commitment, it simply means fostering an ability to adapt. And this of course is different for everyone, but I think if people take an honest look at their lives, they will realize how brittle most of the systems they depend on. Much of this can't be helped, hence preparation in terms of food storage etc. But certainly our concept of ourselves as committed to one and only one way of life, to one mode of living needs to change, and change fast.
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