From the Steering Committee meeting: Crude Awakening will begin to focus more of its attention on public transit, as an actionable outgrowth of the peak oil problem.
Peak Oil is beginning to be evident in the prices especially of gasoline, and high prices are causing all sorts of behavioral changes, most notable is a increased reliance on public transit, biking and walking. Thus a focus on enhancing existing networks of efficient transportation seems to be a good use of the group's energy, and a sensible response to the problem of Peak Oil in Austin, Texas.
This does not mean of course that Crude Awakening will neglect other aspects of the Peak Oil problem...certainly plenty needs to be accounted for. It does mean however that Crude Awakening recognizes that in addition to personal preparation, that the entire community needs to work together for solutions, and that solutions that only involve individuals will be inadequate to ensure a smooth transition to a more efficient, less energy-intense mode of living.
Friday, August 29, 2008
Monday, August 25, 2008
Twitter as an Organizing Tool
Crude Awakening is on twitter: @crudeawakening . Twitter is SMS/Web updates about the status of our organization. To receive Crude Awakening's updates to your phone (information about local meetings, field trips, conferences and peak oil news) simply text this message (minus the quotes): "follow crudeawakening" to the phone number 4040-4 . It will ask you for a user name - text one back and you are set getting updates to your phone. Please be aware of your texting package because twitter isn't totally free on that end...
If you aren't familiar with Twitter, you should be. A free SMS/Texting tool, if twitter seems totally pointless its because organizations haven't yet taken advantage of twitter on a large scale...at least they haven't gotten much attention for doing so. Many large news organizations are on Twitter, and Barack Obama recently announced Joe Biden as his vice president via Twitter.
Twitter allows one person from a phone OR from the web to send out announcements to anyone "following" them. The advantage of using Twitter over regular texting is that you don't need to know everyone's phone number, and you can be "followed" by people you've never met. In this way Twitter allows a two-way flow of followers, rather than the 'traditional' method of having to collect numbers or email addresses.
From a designer's standpoint Twitter is great because it allows you to totally customize the background image for the page...something that myspace allows, but not anyone else (not facebook, not meetup...) This might sound like a detail, but when it comes to branding its important especially in the age of such diversified branding spaces (social networks).
The Oil Drum @theoildrum is on Twitter, and I'm sure other peak oil sites aren't far behind. I think one of the biggest barriers to adoption of this technology by peak oil groups is a reluctance to embrace new technology in general -- because of a fear that it might go away soon. While those fears may or may not be justified (I would wager they are) we live in the present moment. And in this moment, Twitter is a great technology and a great way to organize. So let's get over it. Oil's going away but we still drive...so let's use the 'now' to prepare for the 'soon'.
If you aren't familiar with Twitter, you should be. A free SMS/Texting tool, if twitter seems totally pointless its because organizations haven't yet taken advantage of twitter on a large scale...at least they haven't gotten much attention for doing so. Many large news organizations are on Twitter, and Barack Obama recently announced Joe Biden as his vice president via Twitter.
Twitter allows one person from a phone OR from the web to send out announcements to anyone "following" them. The advantage of using Twitter over regular texting is that you don't need to know everyone's phone number, and you can be "followed" by people you've never met. In this way Twitter allows a two-way flow of followers, rather than the 'traditional' method of having to collect numbers or email addresses.
From a designer's standpoint Twitter is great because it allows you to totally customize the background image for the page...something that myspace allows, but not anyone else (not facebook, not meetup...) This might sound like a detail, but when it comes to branding its important especially in the age of such diversified branding spaces (social networks).
The Oil Drum @theoildrum is on Twitter, and I'm sure other peak oil sites aren't far behind. I think one of the biggest barriers to adoption of this technology by peak oil groups is a reluctance to embrace new technology in general -- because of a fear that it might go away soon. While those fears may or may not be justified (I would wager they are) we live in the present moment. And in this moment, Twitter is a great technology and a great way to organize. So let's get over it. Oil's going away but we still drive...so let's use the 'now' to prepare for the 'soon'.
Sunday, August 24, 2008
Motorcylcing Chernobyl
Found the strangest blog -- about a woman motorcycling through Chernobyl. Apparently the radiation isn't uniform, the winds spread it unevenly across the countryside. She carries a Geiger counter with her on her motorcycle. The pictures are utterly amazing, and whats more, the stories about the men fighting the fire, and the villagers who went to watch the initial fire, totally unaware that they were looking into the burning guts of a nuclear reaction. I can't fathom going into Chernobyl on a motorcycle, but what a story!
Click here to go to her blog
Click here to go to her blog
Thursday, August 21, 2008
More psychology
NOTE: I'm not a psychologist, and I don't play one on TV. These are my opinions after being in the world for a few years, and not scientific fact: I've met more than a few people who are gravely concerned about peak oil. And rightfully so. For someone who has just discovered peak oil, the shock of the information can be pretty overwhelming and the emotional response can be strong to the point of bordering on the physical (tightness of the chest etc).
I'm not a trained anything, but for me the most important thing in that kind of situation is to allow your body and your mind to act and react. Now that sounds strange and maybe a little obvious I know -- but the immediate danger is that a person in a state of panic doesn't allow themselves to move beyond the panic. They keep rehashing the facts in their mind, and as a result keep themselves in a state of perpetual shock.
You don't need a Ph.D. to realize that this mind-state is extremely unhealthy. We need to let the information affect our minds and our bodies without trying to relive that experience. This is not always easy, especially with stressful abstractions like peak oil: we are problem-solvers, and if the problem cannot be easily solved we are in danger of fatigue.
After the initial shock of the new, there is a shaking off, and a period of calm that can be had if we have enough awareness to let the more 'animal' part of our brain take over. The reptilian brain is reactive, effective and totally illogical -- that being said, it allows animals to do what humans have a very difficult time doing: moving on. And thats what we need to allow ourselves to do - to move on!
Again, this sounds like easy, obvious advice, and thats the point. We tend to make things more complicated than they are. For example: many people talk about 'running to the hills' to 'escape' peak oil and its various affects. For most people this is a radical change of lifestyle, and personally I think that it doesn't matter.
We need to stop thinking in terms of things we are going to do to our life, and start realizing that we are living our survival each and every day. For instance today someone found out about peak oil, and now they are worried, panicked and unsettled...all normal reactions. But is that person going to allow themselves to cling to an old paradigm, to deny, or worse yet to try and change everything around them so they themselves don't have to change? What we need to realize is that our reaction to stress and worry IS our survival. If the very thought of peak oil traumatizes a person into inaction, then how will long lines at gas stations affect them? Even if they have moved into the country and stockpiled food, if their psychology is not prepared to roll with the punches, then that person is in just as much trouble as anyone else.
What need to is not NECESSARILY food rations -- what we need more than anything, right now, in this moment, is the ability to roll with the punches, to change. Not unfeeling, but to evaluate the situation as it presents itself, and realize that we need to adapt to that world, and only that world which presents itself. So feel that panic, that worry, that helplessness, but be aware; its only a reaction. And then get on with it.
I'm not a trained anything, but for me the most important thing in that kind of situation is to allow your body and your mind to act and react. Now that sounds strange and maybe a little obvious I know -- but the immediate danger is that a person in a state of panic doesn't allow themselves to move beyond the panic. They keep rehashing the facts in their mind, and as a result keep themselves in a state of perpetual shock.
You don't need a Ph.D. to realize that this mind-state is extremely unhealthy. We need to let the information affect our minds and our bodies without trying to relive that experience. This is not always easy, especially with stressful abstractions like peak oil: we are problem-solvers, and if the problem cannot be easily solved we are in danger of fatigue.
After the initial shock of the new, there is a shaking off, and a period of calm that can be had if we have enough awareness to let the more 'animal' part of our brain take over. The reptilian brain is reactive, effective and totally illogical -- that being said, it allows animals to do what humans have a very difficult time doing: moving on. And thats what we need to allow ourselves to do - to move on!
Again, this sounds like easy, obvious advice, and thats the point. We tend to make things more complicated than they are. For example: many people talk about 'running to the hills' to 'escape' peak oil and its various affects. For most people this is a radical change of lifestyle, and personally I think that it doesn't matter.
We need to stop thinking in terms of things we are going to do to our life, and start realizing that we are living our survival each and every day. For instance today someone found out about peak oil, and now they are worried, panicked and unsettled...all normal reactions. But is that person going to allow themselves to cling to an old paradigm, to deny, or worse yet to try and change everything around them so they themselves don't have to change? What we need to realize is that our reaction to stress and worry IS our survival. If the very thought of peak oil traumatizes a person into inaction, then how will long lines at gas stations affect them? Even if they have moved into the country and stockpiled food, if their psychology is not prepared to roll with the punches, then that person is in just as much trouble as anyone else.
What need to is not NECESSARILY food rations -- what we need more than anything, right now, in this moment, is the ability to roll with the punches, to change. Not unfeeling, but to evaluate the situation as it presents itself, and realize that we need to adapt to that world, and only that world which presents itself. So feel that panic, that worry, that helplessness, but be aware; its only a reaction. And then get on with it.
Wednesday, August 20, 2008
Pivot Point
I like the concept of a pivot. To me it is the pin on which something rotates, but the implication is that the pin itself does not more, but rather is a fixed point, a reference. When we think of history, we tend to think of pivot points, of 'pivotal' junctures in history where the entire structure of human events shifted...
As I'm interested in the history of oil, I tend to view much of history through the lens of energy, as a quest to acquire the best, most secure supply of energy. The United States in the 20th century was remarkably gifted with a vast supply of oil, and ever since its production hit peak in the early 1970s, it has done well not only to control but to assure a steadily increasing supply of oil.
I can't say with certainty what events will be important to historians in 200 years, or even in 5 years. Personally I believe the decade of the 1970's was the critical pivot point in the history of oil, which more than centuries and more than political or philosophical movements will bracket modernity. Modernity has always been about speed, and speed, in the modern world, was delivered by fossil fuels.
In the 1970's it became evident that the US was no longer the swing producer for the world...in other words the US no longer controlled the world price of oil, as it no longer controlled the excess supply. The 1970's showed the world the price of relying on fossil fuel and the oil shocks in the early 70's led the drive towards conservation and prudence.
The 1970's also gave us the Carter Doctrine, which stated that the US would use military force to defend its 'interests' in the Persian Gulf. I'm sure such policy has always been in effect, but to state it with such rawness and boldness signaled a new era in elite and public consciousness about oil.
Much of the ramifications of the 1970's were obscured by the Saudis, who stepped in to fulfill the role of swing producer, and by the deregulation of the financial markets in the 1980's.
Before the 1970's, oil had mostly been a regional issue, and where the world had been concerned there was always plenty of oil. Instead of dealing with the obvious problems of an oil addicted world, the US choose to pursue more oil resources, to drill more, to find other sources of this valuable energy.
And yet the problems of basing an economy and a society on oil -- those never went away. They were simply deferred by 30 or so years. And now, once again, we are waking up to the grim reality that the reality has NOT changed, that oil dependence has gotten worse instead of better AND the fundamental problem of an addiction to a depleting resource was still in play.
The world pivoted in the 1970s. The momentum of the Saudis, of the North Sea oil, of Prudhoe Bay in Alaska -- those discoveries carried further into the age of oil. But the truth is that we're dealing with a shift that took place almost 40 years ago and once again the world is on the cusp of a great pivot. I can't say what that is, but I doubt very much that it will be easy, and I doubt very much that the world has ever seen anything like what is coming in the next 30 or so years.
We live in a fascinating time.
As I'm interested in the history of oil, I tend to view much of history through the lens of energy, as a quest to acquire the best, most secure supply of energy. The United States in the 20th century was remarkably gifted with a vast supply of oil, and ever since its production hit peak in the early 1970s, it has done well not only to control but to assure a steadily increasing supply of oil.
I can't say with certainty what events will be important to historians in 200 years, or even in 5 years. Personally I believe the decade of the 1970's was the critical pivot point in the history of oil, which more than centuries and more than political or philosophical movements will bracket modernity. Modernity has always been about speed, and speed, in the modern world, was delivered by fossil fuels.
In the 1970's it became evident that the US was no longer the swing producer for the world...in other words the US no longer controlled the world price of oil, as it no longer controlled the excess supply. The 1970's showed the world the price of relying on fossil fuel and the oil shocks in the early 70's led the drive towards conservation and prudence.
The 1970's also gave us the Carter Doctrine, which stated that the US would use military force to defend its 'interests' in the Persian Gulf. I'm sure such policy has always been in effect, but to state it with such rawness and boldness signaled a new era in elite and public consciousness about oil.
Much of the ramifications of the 1970's were obscured by the Saudis, who stepped in to fulfill the role of swing producer, and by the deregulation of the financial markets in the 1980's.
Before the 1970's, oil had mostly been a regional issue, and where the world had been concerned there was always plenty of oil. Instead of dealing with the obvious problems of an oil addicted world, the US choose to pursue more oil resources, to drill more, to find other sources of this valuable energy.
And yet the problems of basing an economy and a society on oil -- those never went away. They were simply deferred by 30 or so years. And now, once again, we are waking up to the grim reality that the reality has NOT changed, that oil dependence has gotten worse instead of better AND the fundamental problem of an addiction to a depleting resource was still in play.
The world pivoted in the 1970s. The momentum of the Saudis, of the North Sea oil, of Prudhoe Bay in Alaska -- those discoveries carried further into the age of oil. But the truth is that we're dealing with a shift that took place almost 40 years ago and once again the world is on the cusp of a great pivot. I can't say what that is, but I doubt very much that it will be easy, and I doubt very much that the world has ever seen anything like what is coming in the next 30 or so years.
We live in a fascinating time.
Monday, August 18, 2008
Great Quote
"I suggest that this is a good time to think soberly about our responsibilities to our descendants – those who will ring out the Fossil Fuel Age," said Adm. Hyman G. Rickover, father of the nuclear Navy.
I found this in an article by Rod Dreher, who wrote a great piece in the
Dallas Morning News about why America is psychologically unprepared for the ramifications of peak oil - mainly the belief that we can do whatever want without incurring unintended or negative side effects. I still believe in the future of this country, its just hard to see so many people living so foolishly, and so selfishly, and to believe that they will make moral and ethical choices in a time of scarcity, when all we've been raised on is the philosophy of unending abundance.
I believe in the fundamental goodness of people. I also believe in their capacity to do evil. The wildcard is usually the choice between the two.
I found this in an article by Rod Dreher, who wrote a great piece in the
Dallas Morning News about why America is psychologically unprepared for the ramifications of peak oil - mainly the belief that we can do whatever want without incurring unintended or negative side effects. I still believe in the future of this country, its just hard to see so many people living so foolishly, and so selfishly, and to believe that they will make moral and ethical choices in a time of scarcity, when all we've been raised on is the philosophy of unending abundance.
I believe in the fundamental goodness of people. I also believe in their capacity to do evil. The wildcard is usually the choice between the two.
Sunday, August 17, 2008
Georgia-Russian war: Energy Conflict?
I watched an amazing segment on Democracy Now about the Russian - Georgian conflict. I was honestly surprised to learn that it was pretty much exclusively about oil, I guess because the mainstream media really seems to focus on democracy blah blah blah. Network news is junk food for the mind.
Michael Clare, author of Rising Powers, Shrinking Planet, talked with Amy Goodman (The anchor for Democracy Now). He mentioned the pipeline built with the urging of the US during the Clinton administration -- and how that pipeline was an attempt to undercut Russian political and economic power over Europe. The strange thing of course is why Georgia would have risked provoking its much more powerful neighbor, and Klare speculates (though I should add without conclusive evidence) that the Neo-conservative faction in the US government led the Georgians to believe that the US would lend more significantly more military aid then was actually politically feasible.
And now because of the conflicting foreign policies coming out of the US (the neo-con faction and the State department) Russia is now within easy striking distance of the pipeline, giving Russia significant economic and political leverage against Europe, NATO and to a certain extent the United States. At least for now.
Sometimes I get nostalgic for the chessmasters of yester-year. It occurs to me that Henry Kissinger was an evil bastard, but at least he could recognize the 'game'. The Neo-Cons seem to be evil and totally clueless. That doesn't make them any less dangerous of course, but instead of worrying about the relative strength of the US, they seem to concerned only with their own exceedingly narrow goals. They seem to myopic and totally inflexible. I'm surprised they haven't been shoved out of power yet.
Michael Clare, author of Rising Powers, Shrinking Planet, talked with Amy Goodman (The anchor for Democracy Now). He mentioned the pipeline built with the urging of the US during the Clinton administration -- and how that pipeline was an attempt to undercut Russian political and economic power over Europe. The strange thing of course is why Georgia would have risked provoking its much more powerful neighbor, and Klare speculates (though I should add without conclusive evidence) that the Neo-conservative faction in the US government led the Georgians to believe that the US would lend more significantly more military aid then was actually politically feasible.
And now because of the conflicting foreign policies coming out of the US (the neo-con faction and the State department) Russia is now within easy striking distance of the pipeline, giving Russia significant economic and political leverage against Europe, NATO and to a certain extent the United States. At least for now.
Sometimes I get nostalgic for the chessmasters of yester-year. It occurs to me that Henry Kissinger was an evil bastard, but at least he could recognize the 'game'. The Neo-Cons seem to be evil and totally clueless. That doesn't make them any less dangerous of course, but instead of worrying about the relative strength of the US, they seem to concerned only with their own exceedingly narrow goals. They seem to myopic and totally inflexible. I'm surprised they haven't been shoved out of power yet.
Wednesday, August 13, 2008
Overbuilt market...
"Overbuilt Market creating modern ghost towns"
-View the MSNBC Article here.
Peak oil is a strange phenomenon. One year ago oil at $100 a barrel would have been inconceivable for all but a few commentators. And yet here we are, oil is hovering around $115 a barrel and people are actually celebrating! And so the cycle has begun, with a run up of prices (it was only a month ago that oil hit a high of $147 a barrel), demand destruction, followed by a drop in price...then the inevitable run up of demand as people adjust to the new price regime and the following run up of price. And so on and so forth. IT DOESN'T HAVE TO BE THIS WAY. If we let the market dictate price then it will be this way, and probably much worse. If government were to put a floor on gas prices, then people could actually begin to act like rational consumers instead of following the completely irrational marketplace for global crude.
Back to the headline: The 'Overbuilt' Market of homes. Home builders are going out of business because of increasing costs and decreasing demand for houses built on the periphery of cities.
There's even a website devoted to this: The Home Builder Implode-O-Meter, monitoring the decline and fall of the home building industry.
It makes me wonder what kind of cycles we will start seeing with the fluctuation in the price of oil and gasoline. As gas gets cheaper, will ex-urban houses enjoy a brief renaissance before being crushed once again by the run-up in price? Or will buyers wise up after the second or third boom and bust cycle?
I think what we're probably witnessing is the extreme boom and bust cycle returning to America. Where during the 1980s and 1990s the US enjoyed a relatively stable economy untroubled by massive oil shocks, the economy of the new millennium will not be so lucky. We don't have the global surplus of crude oil to stabilize the world (or local) economies, not like we did in the 1970s.
-View the MSNBC Article here.
Peak oil is a strange phenomenon. One year ago oil at $100 a barrel would have been inconceivable for all but a few commentators. And yet here we are, oil is hovering around $115 a barrel and people are actually celebrating! And so the cycle has begun, with a run up of prices (it was only a month ago that oil hit a high of $147 a barrel), demand destruction, followed by a drop in price...then the inevitable run up of demand as people adjust to the new price regime and the following run up of price. And so on and so forth. IT DOESN'T HAVE TO BE THIS WAY. If we let the market dictate price then it will be this way, and probably much worse. If government were to put a floor on gas prices, then people could actually begin to act like rational consumers instead of following the completely irrational marketplace for global crude.
Back to the headline: The 'Overbuilt' Market of homes. Home builders are going out of business because of increasing costs and decreasing demand for houses built on the periphery of cities.
There's even a website devoted to this: The Home Builder Implode-O-Meter, monitoring the decline and fall of the home building industry.
It makes me wonder what kind of cycles we will start seeing with the fluctuation in the price of oil and gasoline. As gas gets cheaper, will ex-urban houses enjoy a brief renaissance before being crushed once again by the run-up in price? Or will buyers wise up after the second or third boom and bust cycle?
I think what we're probably witnessing is the extreme boom and bust cycle returning to America. Where during the 1980s and 1990s the US enjoyed a relatively stable economy untroubled by massive oil shocks, the economy of the new millennium will not be so lucky. We don't have the global surplus of crude oil to stabilize the world (or local) economies, not like we did in the 1970s.
Sunday, August 10, 2008
Video Archives
CrudeAwakening.org now is presenting videos! I'll be updating them on the homepage as well as on our video archive page. It's new and expect it grow rapidly, especially as Matt Simmons, Richard Heinberg et al. are appearing with increasing frequency on the cable news shows, and as Peak Oil is increasingly visible throughout the mainstream media.
If you have any embed codes, interesting videos or audio samples, please email them to jon@crudeawakening.org
The latest is Richard Heinberg talking shop on Al-Jaazera TV, see above
If you have any embed codes, interesting videos or audio samples, please email them to jon@crudeawakening.org
The latest is Richard Heinberg talking shop on Al-Jaazera TV, see above
Friday, August 1, 2008
Get out of Debt -- NOW!
That's all. This isn't an admonishment for spending too much on a credit card, or for possessing large levels of debt. It doesn't matter where you are, but rather to recognize your current level of debt -- and prepare for peak oil by GETTING OUT OF DEBT.
As much as possible do this, especially on credit cards and smaller loans that are easier to pay back. Many people who come to meetings have a bit of a panicked look about them, and are wondering how they can best prepare for peak oil. Decreasing the amount you owe is a great way to start, and smaller interest payments will leave more money in the pocket to save, or to continue paying down debt.
As individuals and as a nation we've taken on an incredible amount of debt. One thing that is for certain is that the standard "business as usual" model of infinite growth will not continue. And that means rates for borrowers (and lenders) will increase rather than decrease. All this means is that individuals will make less money each year and face increasing credit rates.
Reduce your vulnerability to this trend by paying down debt now, when you have the spare assets to allow you to do that.
As much as possible do this, especially on credit cards and smaller loans that are easier to pay back. Many people who come to meetings have a bit of a panicked look about them, and are wondering how they can best prepare for peak oil. Decreasing the amount you owe is a great way to start, and smaller interest payments will leave more money in the pocket to save, or to continue paying down debt.
As individuals and as a nation we've taken on an incredible amount of debt. One thing that is for certain is that the standard "business as usual" model of infinite growth will not continue. And that means rates for borrowers (and lenders) will increase rather than decrease. All this means is that individuals will make less money each year and face increasing credit rates.
Reduce your vulnerability to this trend by paying down debt now, when you have the spare assets to allow you to do that.
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