Break Point

I've been reading "A Thousand Barrels A Second" by Peter Tertzakian, a book about the peaking of oil production. Tertzakian introduces an interesting concept called the "Break Point", a society's re-evaluation point of an energy source.

In the past break points happened, for the most part, to coincide with the discovery of a more energy-rich, aka 'better' fuel, think of the transition of industrializing England from burning wood to burning coal, or the world-wide transition in the 19th century from whale oil to petroleum.

Of course history provides examples of break points where societies were simply unable to move to a higher source of energy / raw materials. Jerod Diamond has a couple of examples of such societies in his book "Collapse" but rather than refer to a scarcity of resources, Diamond typically seems to reference an over-abundance of people. In my mind these are one in the same problem, in our day and age we can look at the balance of population to available resources.

Our re-evaluation of petroleum hasn't nearly been hit, although we are noticing a minor change in driving habits. For the first time in 5 years, the number of miles driven in the US declined. Still our way of life is intact. I believe that in order for our society to truly re-evaluate petroleum, the price of gasoline will have to double or triple in price, as it did in 1973 and again 1979. That world was able to re-adjust its energy sources, and continue growing.

Our break point will be different. As we are approaching peak production in numerous areas (including, I believe, peak food, peak minerals, peak 'work' and peak wealth) we will also reach a break point in the American dream, the concept that anyone can be rich, the idea of perpetual growth and an ever increasing level of wealth and prosperity.

Our energy break point will quickly become a mental break point. Jimmy Carter's 'malaise' speech is mocked for its dour tone, but mark my words we will in the next 5-10 years hear a US president address exactly the same crisis of confidence, and within ourselves we will each have to reformulate (as we do many many times in our lives) exactly what it is we expect out of life and how we will exist within the limits imposed on us by our environment.