Goodbye Airlines

I've been thinking about this for a while, and I've been talking to my friends about it. Most of them think in terms of straight supply/demand equation: if the demand for air travel keeps rising, then so will supply, thereby determining price. That is assuming of course a fixed cost for jet fuel. Which is simply not the case. Jet fuel has risen quite dramatically in price.

Indeed the demise of the airline industry has been written about quite a bit, so I don't feel the need to address it too much in depth, other than to briefly point out some of the smaller airlines have been failing, and the larger ones have been trying to merge to cut costs.

Of course if jet fuel is rising, then there is nothing that can be done...despite mergers, cost cutting measures, layoffs and the like at some point someone has to fly the damn plane, and jet fuel has to be burned to propel the thing through space. Maybe passengers should be charged by weight (bad joke)

But the truth of the matter is that airlines won't be around forever in their current form because most people won't be able to afford to fly. Thats just the reality, hard as it may be for people to accept.

Of course at this point, a certain amount of denial is to be expected, but I hope no one is surprised when the government attempts to bail out, then takeover the ailing airlines industry...and I would assume after a few years of failing to make any money, will give up the enterprise all together.

From CNNmoney.com:

"High fuel prices have caused airfares to skyrocket. And the economy has caused some Americans to postpone or downsize their travel plans. Fewer tourists are coming to Hawaii, and some think the problems are only beginning.

ATA and Aloha Airlines have already gone bust. And starting next week, two Japanese airlines will increase fuel surcharges on flights to Hawaii by 43%. American Airlines just announced plans to eliminate its Chicago-Honolulu route at the end of the year."

the article is here

Reconnecting

This From CNN.com

[ Tracy and Adam Crews posted on iReport that their annual Memorial Day weekend has traditionally involved camping and fishing.

"Well, due to the continual rise in gas, we felt our only recourse was to nix the idea this year and stay home" in Jacksonville, Florida, they wrote.

Instead, the couple said they "decided to camp out in the backyard. We set the tent up, just finished installing our above ground pool, and cleaned up the grill. ... We have ourselves a campsite! It's been a blast!"]

--full article : here at cnn.com

Who says peak oil means only chaos and unhappiness? Certainly those things will play a role, but what about reconnecting with our communities, our families, our freetime, our children?

I've always maintained that peak oil is an opportunity to live richer, fuller lives, at least here in the US.

I'm past the point of worrying so much about the economic ramifications of peak oil, or about the state of a post-peak world. I have new confidence in myself, and I know that whatever happens we will deal with it. Its time to start hoping for the best, something the peak oil movement seems to have quite a bit of trouble with....