Showing posts with label the World is Flat. Show all posts
Showing posts with label the World is Flat. Show all posts

Thursday, May 29, 2008

Thomas Friedman was wrong

"The World is Flat", by Thomas Friedman, was released in 2005, and it only took geologic reality 3 years to prove him wrong.

"Globalization is reversible. Higher energy prices are impacting transport costs at an unprecedented rate. So much so, that the cost of moving goods, not the cost of tariffs, is the largest barrier to global trade today."


View the entire CIBC World Markets Report here


In his book, Friedman identified 10 'flatteners', or trends that demolished the barriers to international trade and the movement of cash + services. Of course most of his 'flatteners' were either technological in nature, or involved the easy movement of goods and services. Friendman, in all of his infinite wisdom, did not realize that underpinning his entire theory of a new Globalized economy was an ocean of cheap, accessible oil.

See the wikipedia page about "The World is Flat"


I wonder what Mr. Friedman is thinking about his recent book now that oil is beginning its long, bumpy descent down the production curve? Or the nature of Globalization in general? What Friedman viewed as the inevitable path of history was of course only a temporary aberration riding the crest of a massive energy abundance.

The truth is that Globalization was a fantasy based on what I'm sure at the time seemed like an endless energy supply, so much so that Friedman didn't even feel like including it in his list of 10 'flatteners'. No amount of technology can compensate for the loss of oil. Globalization, to the extent that it exists today = a cheap, ever growing supply of oil. When this dries up, the world as we know it will be drastically altered.