It seems that everyone is talking about $4 gasoline. There’s a lot of opinion about what is driving that, what effect it will have on our economy, will it continue to increase, what can we do to increase production, develop alternatives, etc; powerful political and industrial figures are proposing solutions to “drive down the price at the pump”. But, before we all get bent out of shape over what we pay for gasoline, we should try to get a better understanding of what the energy contained in that gallon of gasoline is worth to humans.
A fit, healthy person can generate 200 watts of power to do work; and given the right circumstances, can do that for 8 hours a day. They don’t do it leaning on their shovels, either; we’re talking about hard, grueling work.
A gallon of gasoline contains 33.530 KiloWatt-Hours of energy ( = 33530 Watt-hours), so 33,500 Watt-hours/gallon ¸ 200 Watts/person @ 168 person-hours / gallon.
So we see that there are about 168 hours of a person’s equivalent energy contained in a gallon of gasoline. That’s about equal to a month’s worth of 40 hour weeks, so the human-energy content of a gallon of gasoline is approximately equal to one month of human work.
Now, the USA consumes over 388 million gallons of gasoline per day, so 388,600,000 gallons/day * 30 days/month @ 11.658 Billion gallons/month and, 11.658 Billion gallons/month * 1 person-month/gallon @11,658,000,000 persons.
In plain language, we in the USA are utilizing a workforce of more than 11.6 billion (that’s with a B) human-energy-equivalent slaves working 40 hours per week, 52 weeks per year to fuel our trips to the mall, idle at teller machines, take business junkets, blow leaves around our neighborhoods and take cross-country vacations every year – among other things.
Gasoline is currently selling for ~ $4/gallon, so the cost of our energy slaves today is 388.6 million gallons/day * $4/gallon ¸ 11.6B persons @ 13¢/day/person. Thirteen cents per day per person. It’s no wonder that we squander an irreplaceable (therefore, priceless) resource on trivial activities, it’s too damn cheap!
Showing posts with label Gas Prices. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Gas Prices. Show all posts
Thursday, July 24, 2008
Wednesday, June 18, 2008
MSNBC: fuel costs shape Suburbs
In the past two days I've read an article each on CNN.com and MSNBC.com about how gas prices are affecting the 'American Dream' aka the alleged desire that every American has to live in a far-flung suburb and spend the better part of two hours ferrying from home to job to social outings.
Its never been my dream, and even people I talk to who live in the suburbs rarely express some fondness for spending so much time locked in automobiles. More often then not, it was about economics, plain and simple. The inexpensive houses were located far from the city center, and driving 20 miles one way to commute was not a big deal when gas was less than a dollar a gallon. Even now, such commutes are pinching consumer spending but have yet to force many people out of their homes.
Yet the economics are changing, and so are the behaviors of those looking to buy homes. From MSNBC.com:
Full article here
Honestly I've been praying for the death of the suburbs for as long as I can remember. I realize a need still exists for affordable housing, and that much investment will be lost due to the devaluation of inexcusably far-flung suburbs, but honestly, isn't it about time that people start concentrating around downtowns and around rail stations. Unfortunately most of the homeowners who will be hurt by the suburban housing downturn were part of a system that was bigger than them: that was designed to grant risky loans in exchange for the illusion of infinite growth and ever-growing housing values.
It will certainly be interesting as it dawns on Americans that endless freeways, sprawling suburbs and 2 hour commutes are a piss poor investment at best, and at worst a ruinous mal-appropriation of resources. James Howard Kunstler calls the American suburbs "the biggest misallocation of resources in human history".
Its never been my dream, and even people I talk to who live in the suburbs rarely express some fondness for spending so much time locked in automobiles. More often then not, it was about economics, plain and simple. The inexpensive houses were located far from the city center, and driving 20 miles one way to commute was not a big deal when gas was less than a dollar a gallon. Even now, such commutes are pinching consumer spending but have yet to force many people out of their homes.
Yet the economics are changing, and so are the behaviors of those looking to buy homes. From MSNBC.com:
Real estate agents, transportation officials and industry surveys indicate that home buyers are placing more importance on cutting their gas bills and commute times than they have since the oil shocks of the 1970s.
Full article here
Honestly I've been praying for the death of the suburbs for as long as I can remember. I realize a need still exists for affordable housing, and that much investment will be lost due to the devaluation of inexcusably far-flung suburbs, but honestly, isn't it about time that people start concentrating around downtowns and around rail stations. Unfortunately most of the homeowners who will be hurt by the suburban housing downturn were part of a system that was bigger than them: that was designed to grant risky loans in exchange for the illusion of infinite growth and ever-growing housing values.
It will certainly be interesting as it dawns on Americans that endless freeways, sprawling suburbs and 2 hour commutes are a piss poor investment at best, and at worst a ruinous mal-appropriation of resources. James Howard Kunstler calls the American suburbs "the biggest misallocation of resources in human history".
Sunday, May 25, 2008
Memorial Weekend
Austin feels pretty empty this weekend and I never know what to believe: MSNBC claims that gas prices are "testing motorists" but that 31.7 million motorists are traveling for memorial, only slightly lower than last year(32 million in 2007)...but what if we take into account the number of new cars on the road since last year. According to wikipedia, an one year alone, America adds
So if we take into account the number of new vehicles on the road (lets say around 3 million given the sordid state of the economy) then suddenly the statistics quoted by MSNBC don't seem so rosy. I don't really have a solid statistic to back up this idea, but it seems like if we have so many new cars on the road, then those cars should be driving during memorial day. The fact that instead of increasing cars trips that we have declined, speaks to the mass of people who aren't driving for memorial. Good for them!
Indeed anecdotal evidence supports this. People I've talked to this weekend won't even consider a 30 minute drive without taking into consideration high gas prices (and the fact that many Texans drive massive SUVs and Pick up trucks) and want to carpool or simply find arrangements that don't require a long drive.
I think that as gas prices increase that we will notice a refinement of the term "long drive". I know that to some a long drive is anything over 2-3 hours, but if gas is 6 dollars a gallon, suddenly a long drive may become much shorter.
At any rate memorial day in Austin definitely feels like the calm before the storm...the markets are closed in the US, gasoline is steady here at 3.89-3.79 a gallon, and people seem to be adjusting so far to driving less for special occasions.
This is not a big deal though. The real question is whether people will be able to adjust to driving less for work, school, shopping and other essential trips. We'll see on Tuesday...
"...3.69 million [vehicles] each year since 1960 with the largest annual growth between 1998 and 1999 as well as between 2000 and 2001 when the number of motor vehicles in the United States increased by eight million."
-Click here to see the whole article
So if we take into account the number of new vehicles on the road (lets say around 3 million given the sordid state of the economy) then suddenly the statistics quoted by MSNBC don't seem so rosy. I don't really have a solid statistic to back up this idea, but it seems like if we have so many new cars on the road, then those cars should be driving during memorial day. The fact that instead of increasing cars trips that we have declined, speaks to the mass of people who aren't driving for memorial. Good for them!
Indeed anecdotal evidence supports this. People I've talked to this weekend won't even consider a 30 minute drive without taking into consideration high gas prices (and the fact that many Texans drive massive SUVs and Pick up trucks) and want to carpool or simply find arrangements that don't require a long drive.
I think that as gas prices increase that we will notice a refinement of the term "long drive". I know that to some a long drive is anything over 2-3 hours, but if gas is 6 dollars a gallon, suddenly a long drive may become much shorter.
At any rate memorial day in Austin definitely feels like the calm before the storm...the markets are closed in the US, gasoline is steady here at 3.89-3.79 a gallon, and people seem to be adjusting so far to driving less for special occasions.
This is not a big deal though. The real question is whether people will be able to adjust to driving less for work, school, shopping and other essential trips. We'll see on Tuesday...
Friday, May 23, 2008
Addiction
Even though the national average for gasoline is topping $4 a gallon, Austinites haven't quite gotten there...yet. Around town gas fluctuates from 3.79 to 3.89. As gasoline prices are hitting the American consumer, politicians are quick with lame solutions, excuses and are generally adept at doing what amounts to nothing.
Since the problem has just burst in view for most of the population, I would like to posit that we can frame this response in a grief/addiction mentality. I realize I'm not the first to suggest this concept of a civilization withdrawing its reliance on a natural resource but I think its important to be aware of what's going on. I don't subscribe to a rigid sequence of emotions in a grief state, but I do believe there are enough similarities to warrant further examination.
Politicians are essentially in a bargaining state, suggesting solutions that don't fundamentally accept the reality of what is going on. We could drill in environmentally sensitive areas, and we could return to older wells (here in the US). I doubt very much that any of this will stop the decline of American Oil production. Remember that we use close to 20 million barrels of oil per day. The wells that have been proposed are all on the magnitude of 1-5 billion barrels of oil total, most being under or around 1 billion. This amounts to 100 days of consumption, hardly worth destroying the last vestiges of American wilderness.
A better solution would be to cut consumption, to dump money into renewable resources, and to commit to using an increasing amount of renewables per year. This is problematic for the addict, however, because it acknowledges the fundamental reality; that oil production is not keeping up with demand, and that will probably be the toughest part about acknowledging peak oil for US politicians.
One of the hallmarks of any successful organism/organization is its ability to adapt. Right now America is losing BIG TIME in its ability to adapt to the changing geologic reality. We will see if America can psychologically cope with peak oil, recover and regain our status as a world leader.
Our past investment in freeways, in cars, in suburbia and far-fling working/living arrangements make this change extremely difficult to make. The front lines of peak oil in America will definitely be played out in the suburbs and around 'interstate culture' and even with high gas prices people are still driving, BBQing and life is going on as before....we'll see how long our nation can sustain that.
Since the problem has just burst in view for most of the population, I would like to posit that we can frame this response in a grief/addiction mentality. I realize I'm not the first to suggest this concept of a civilization withdrawing its reliance on a natural resource but I think its important to be aware of what's going on. I don't subscribe to a rigid sequence of emotions in a grief state, but I do believe there are enough similarities to warrant further examination.
Politicians are essentially in a bargaining state, suggesting solutions that don't fundamentally accept the reality of what is going on. We could drill in environmentally sensitive areas, and we could return to older wells (here in the US). I doubt very much that any of this will stop the decline of American Oil production. Remember that we use close to 20 million barrels of oil per day. The wells that have been proposed are all on the magnitude of 1-5 billion barrels of oil total, most being under or around 1 billion. This amounts to 100 days of consumption, hardly worth destroying the last vestiges of American wilderness.
A better solution would be to cut consumption, to dump money into renewable resources, and to commit to using an increasing amount of renewables per year. This is problematic for the addict, however, because it acknowledges the fundamental reality; that oil production is not keeping up with demand, and that will probably be the toughest part about acknowledging peak oil for US politicians.
One of the hallmarks of any successful organism/organization is its ability to adapt. Right now America is losing BIG TIME in its ability to adapt to the changing geologic reality. We will see if America can psychologically cope with peak oil, recover and regain our status as a world leader.
Our past investment in freeways, in cars, in suburbia and far-fling working/living arrangements make this change extremely difficult to make. The front lines of peak oil in America will definitely be played out in the suburbs and around 'interstate culture' and even with high gas prices people are still driving, BBQing and life is going on as before....we'll see how long our nation can sustain that.
Thursday, May 22, 2008
The Crude Awakening
I've got a secret: I love MSNBC.com, not because I think its got factual information per se, but I think its actually a good gauge of conventional wisdom, and a good way to understand what kind of information the population at large is consuming.
From an article today:
"But the impact of the [gas/oil] price surge already is being widely felt. And if prices go
much higher, the damage to the U.S. economy will be deeper and wider than the fallout from the run-up so far."
We hear it again and again, the mantra about gas prices, gas prices and its something that directly impacts people. From the same article:
"Economists estimate that every additional penny at the pump takes roughly $1 billion out of overall spending. "
Now i don't know if thats true, but think about the scale of gas stations across the US, about how much we drive and fill our tanks...and you can see that it very well could be true. Down the street on Riverside and S. Congress, gas went up 10 cents today. Does that mean, given a price hike across the US, that 10 billion was just taken out of overall US spending? Maybe that over simplistic, but to me the 1 cent = 1 billion less consumer spending is a great way to talk to people about peak oil. Gas prices is a great way to talk to people about peak oil.
We have to realize how peak oil is gathering on the horizon: as a massive economic slowdown. This is how people will experience the first waves of peak oil. And the crazy thing is: we may not have peaked.
So perhaps the peak oil movement needs to start examining how peak oil is affecting people, and tailor our message to address people's concerns. If we are a movement, then we need supporters to actually bring about change. And though talk of statistics and flow rates might be factual, they will never win over large numbers of people.
We need to STOP talking to people's brains, and start talking to their guts. We don't need to lie or engage in hyperbole, since the problem is already here. We simply need to engage people on a level where they will listen, and then allow their interest to propel them to investigate our claims further.
On thing is for sure: the peak oil movement needs to mark May 2008 as a turning point in the long history of humanity's relationship to oil. This marks the beginning of a new era, and probably people will look back and date the start of the 21rst century to this year, since the 21rst century will be characterized by scarcity of resources, and May 2008 was when the industrialized world started to wake from the energy binge that has characterized the last 50 years.....
From an article today:
"But the impact of the [gas/oil] price surge already is being widely felt. And if prices go
much higher, the damage to the U.S. economy will be deeper and wider than the fallout from the run-up so far."
We hear it again and again, the mantra about gas prices, gas prices and its something that directly impacts people. From the same article:
"Economists estimate that every additional penny at the pump takes roughly $1 billion out of overall spending. "
Now i don't know if thats true, but think about the scale of gas stations across the US, about how much we drive and fill our tanks...and you can see that it very well could be true. Down the street on Riverside and S. Congress, gas went up 10 cents today. Does that mean, given a price hike across the US, that 10 billion was just taken out of overall US spending? Maybe that over simplistic, but to me the 1 cent = 1 billion less consumer spending is a great way to talk to people about peak oil. Gas prices is a great way to talk to people about peak oil.
We have to realize how peak oil is gathering on the horizon: as a massive economic slowdown. This is how people will experience the first waves of peak oil. And the crazy thing is: we may not have peaked.
So perhaps the peak oil movement needs to start examining how peak oil is affecting people, and tailor our message to address people's concerns. If we are a movement, then we need supporters to actually bring about change. And though talk of statistics and flow rates might be factual, they will never win over large numbers of people.
We need to STOP talking to people's brains, and start talking to their guts. We don't need to lie or engage in hyperbole, since the problem is already here. We simply need to engage people on a level where they will listen, and then allow their interest to propel them to investigate our claims further.
On thing is for sure: the peak oil movement needs to mark May 2008 as a turning point in the long history of humanity's relationship to oil. This marks the beginning of a new era, and probably people will look back and date the start of the 21rst century to this year, since the 21rst century will be characterized by scarcity of resources, and May 2008 was when the industrialized world started to wake from the energy binge that has characterized the last 50 years.....
Wednesday, May 21, 2008
A barrel of oil just hit $133
At least at the time of this writing, oil has just risen 4 dollars to 133 a barrel. Here in Austin, I-35 is still packed with cars, and everyone is making their plans for memorial day. With the price of oil, I can't imagine a memorial day more weighed down by economic concerns. I've lived through recessions before, but this has a different feeling, like the winnowing of the light before an extended period of decline. But for the most part no one seems terribly concerned, even though gas prices are at record highs. I guess past experience has shown us that the price of gas always goes down, even though I doubt that will be the case in this scenario....
I read MSNBC everyday, and basically the entire top part of the site seems to be dedicated to Peak Oil issues:
-Fed Sees Slower Growth, Higher Unemployment
-American Airlines to start charging 15 dollars for the first checked bag (offset high fuel costs)
-Oil Execs. defend massive profits
-Gas prices kill your budget? Try a bicycle
And yet peak oil is STILL rarely mentioned. Wow. I'm not sure what it will take, but the authors of MSNBC.com are going to have to get out of denial and stop cheerleading and face the harsh reality of an energy-constrained world. Its about time.
I read MSNBC everyday, and basically the entire top part of the site seems to be dedicated to Peak Oil issues:
-Fed Sees Slower Growth, Higher Unemployment
-American Airlines to start charging 15 dollars for the first checked bag (offset high fuel costs)
-Oil Execs. defend massive profits
-Gas prices kill your budget? Try a bicycle
And yet peak oil is STILL rarely mentioned. Wow. I'm not sure what it will take, but the authors of MSNBC.com are going to have to get out of denial and stop cheerleading and face the harsh reality of an energy-constrained world. Its about time.
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