Recovery is 6 months away...

I'm getting sick of reading quotes like these:

'Despite the negative [economic] numbers, "the worst of the hemorrhaging is behind us" and a modest recovery is likely to take shape next year, said Bernard Baumohl, managing director of the Economic Outlook Group.'


Full Article

This is the fiction we are sold, that recovery is looming on the horizon even as more and more signs point to unsustainable exploitation of natural resources, to declining energy supplies and ultimately to a period of sustained economic decline.

The problem of course is that stories like these lull us into a trance of thinking that recovery, like so many times in the past, is just over the horizon.

Its time to face the music. Its time to stop kidding ourselves and accept that economic decline rather than growth will indelibly mark the 21rst century, but that 'growth' and 'decline' are relative terms. If we keep our head about us, we can redefine growth. Growth means having more time in our lives instead of less. Growth means physical strength rather than obesity. Growth means re-discovering a spiritual connection. Growth means accepting natural limits of ecology, of nature and of human ingenuity instead of denying those things.

But growth requires humility in the face of limits, and articles like the one that appeared at www.msnbc.com do not guide us towards humility rather they lead us down the dangerous path of illusion and delusion.

Let's accept whats coming and stop accepting without comment those viewpoints who would try and pacify our will to change.

Preparation for Peak Oil?

I've talked to many people about preparation for the manifestations of Peak Oil in the U.S., in Texas, in Austin. I've known about peak oil for around 4 years, but haven't given much thought to serious preparation. Now that it seems like an accelerating reality, I've been talking to people more and more about how to prepare, and I've come up with a basic plan that takes into account my 'meager' income and savings, and the fact that I live in a rented apartment.

Being a single guy and in relatively good health and physical shape, I think that the most important things for me to think about are my psychological health, and short term, 1-3 month needs in case of an emergency. That means thinking about storing food and water to sustain me, having cooking materials and water filtration systems, thinking about my personal safety and security, as well as the security of my belongings.

After having taken care of the physical aspect (food water etc) which I think is #1 no question, I need to tackle the element that I think is less appreciated, but that will, in the long run, be most important: my psychological well being.

The response to a crisis (which I believe will be a short-lived but serious break down in services, food delivery etc) will either be panic leading to poor decisions, or apathy leading to inaction. I believe mental rehearsals for such an emergency to be important, as well as concrete plans to deal with situations that may arise.

In reading other blogs + articles about peak oil, I keep seeing the idea of "flexibility". Our plans need to be flexible, our power sources need to be flexible, our psychological make up needs to be flexible.

That doesn't mean a lack of commitment, it simply means fostering an ability to adapt. And this of course is different for everyone, but I think if people take an honest look at their lives, they will realize how brittle most of the systems they depend on. Much of this can't be helped, hence preparation in terms of food storage etc. But certainly our concept of ourselves as committed to one and only one way of life, to one mode of living needs to change, and change fast.

Addiction

Even though the national average for gasoline is topping $4 a gallon, Austinites haven't quite gotten there...yet. Around town gas fluctuates from 3.79 to 3.89. As gasoline prices are hitting the American consumer, politicians are quick with lame solutions, excuses and are generally adept at doing what amounts to nothing.

Since the problem has just burst in view for most of the population, I would like to posit that we can frame this response in a grief/addiction mentality. I realize I'm not the first to suggest this concept of a civilization withdrawing its reliance on a natural resource but I think its important to be aware of what's going on. I don't subscribe to a rigid sequence of emotions in a grief state, but I do believe there are enough similarities to warrant further examination.

Politicians are essentially in a bargaining state, suggesting solutions that don't fundamentally accept the reality of what is going on. We could drill in environmentally sensitive areas, and we could return to older wells (here in the US). I doubt very much that any of this will stop the decline of American Oil production. Remember that we use close to 20 million barrels of oil per day. The wells that have been proposed are all on the magnitude of 1-5 billion barrels of oil total, most being under or around 1 billion. This amounts to 100 days of consumption, hardly worth destroying the last vestiges of American wilderness.

A better solution would be to cut consumption, to dump money into renewable resources, and to commit to using an increasing amount of renewables per year. This is problematic for the addict, however, because it acknowledges the fundamental reality; that oil production is not keeping up with demand, and that will probably be the toughest part about acknowledging peak oil for US politicians.

One of the hallmarks of any successful organism/organization is its ability to adapt. Right now America is losing BIG TIME in its ability to adapt to the changing geologic reality. We will see if America can psychologically cope with peak oil, recover and regain our status as a world leader.

Our past investment in freeways, in cars, in suburbia and far-fling working/living arrangements make this change extremely difficult to make. The front lines of peak oil in America will definitely be played out in the suburbs and around 'interstate culture' and even with high gas prices people are still driving, BBQing and life is going on as before....we'll see how long our nation can sustain that.

The Crude Awakening

I've got a secret: I love MSNBC.com, not because I think its got factual information per se, but I think its actually a good gauge of conventional wisdom, and a good way to understand what kind of information the population at large is consuming.

From an article today:
"But the impact of the [gas/oil] price surge already is being widely felt. And if prices go
much higher, the damage to the U.S. economy will be deeper and wider than the fallout from the run-up so far."

We hear it again and again, the mantra about gas prices, gas prices and its something that directly impacts people. From the same article:
"Economists estimate that every additional penny at the pump takes roughly $1 billion out of overall spending. "

Now i don't know if thats true, but think about the scale of gas stations across the US, about how much we drive and fill our tanks...and you can see that it very well could be true. Down the street on Riverside and S. Congress, gas went up 10 cents today. Does that mean, given a price hike across the US, that 10 billion was just taken out of overall US spending? Maybe that over simplistic, but to me the 1 cent = 1 billion less consumer spending is a great way to talk to people about peak oil. Gas prices is a great way to talk to people about peak oil.

We have to realize how peak oil is gathering on the horizon: as a massive economic slowdown. This is how people will experience the first waves of peak oil. And the crazy thing is: we may not have peaked.

So perhaps the peak oil movement needs to start examining how peak oil is affecting people, and tailor our message to address people's concerns. If we are a movement, then we need supporters to actually bring about change. And though talk of statistics and flow rates might be factual, they will never win over large numbers of people.

We need to STOP talking to people's brains, and start talking to their guts. We don't need to lie or engage in hyperbole, since the problem is already here. We simply need to engage people on a level where they will listen, and then allow their interest to propel them to investigate our claims further.

On thing is for sure: the peak oil movement needs to mark May 2008 as a turning point in the long history of humanity's relationship to oil. This marks the beginning of a new era, and probably people will look back and date the start of the 21rst century to this year, since the 21rst century will be characterized by scarcity of resources, and May 2008 was when the industrialized world started to wake from the energy binge that has characterized the last 50 years.....