The Crude Awakening

I've got a secret: I love MSNBC.com, not because I think its got factual information per se, but I think its actually a good gauge of conventional wisdom, and a good way to understand what kind of information the population at large is consuming.

From an article today:
"But the impact of the [gas/oil] price surge already is being widely felt. And if prices go
much higher, the damage to the U.S. economy will be deeper and wider than the fallout from the run-up so far."

We hear it again and again, the mantra about gas prices, gas prices and its something that directly impacts people. From the same article:
"Economists estimate that every additional penny at the pump takes roughly $1 billion out of overall spending. "

Now i don't know if thats true, but think about the scale of gas stations across the US, about how much we drive and fill our tanks...and you can see that it very well could be true. Down the street on Riverside and S. Congress, gas went up 10 cents today. Does that mean, given a price hike across the US, that 10 billion was just taken out of overall US spending? Maybe that over simplistic, but to me the 1 cent = 1 billion less consumer spending is a great way to talk to people about peak oil. Gas prices is a great way to talk to people about peak oil.

We have to realize how peak oil is gathering on the horizon: as a massive economic slowdown. This is how people will experience the first waves of peak oil. And the crazy thing is: we may not have peaked.

So perhaps the peak oil movement needs to start examining how peak oil is affecting people, and tailor our message to address people's concerns. If we are a movement, then we need supporters to actually bring about change. And though talk of statistics and flow rates might be factual, they will never win over large numbers of people.

We need to STOP talking to people's brains, and start talking to their guts. We don't need to lie or engage in hyperbole, since the problem is already here. We simply need to engage people on a level where they will listen, and then allow their interest to propel them to investigate our claims further.

On thing is for sure: the peak oil movement needs to mark May 2008 as a turning point in the long history of humanity's relationship to oil. This marks the beginning of a new era, and probably people will look back and date the start of the 21rst century to this year, since the 21rst century will be characterized by scarcity of resources, and May 2008 was when the industrialized world started to wake from the energy binge that has characterized the last 50 years.....