Sunday, May 25, 2008

Memorial Weekend

Austin feels pretty empty this weekend and I never know what to believe: MSNBC claims that gas prices are "testing motorists" but that 31.7 million motorists are traveling for memorial, only slightly lower than last year(32 million in 2007)...but what if we take into account the number of new cars on the road since last year. According to wikipedia, an one year alone, America adds

"...3.69 million [vehicles] each year since 1960 with the largest annual growth between 1998 and 1999 as well as between 2000 and 2001 when the number of motor vehicles in the United States increased by eight million."
-Click here to see the whole article


So if we take into account the number of new vehicles on the road (lets say around 3 million given the sordid state of the economy) then suddenly the statistics quoted by MSNBC don't seem so rosy. I don't really have a solid statistic to back up this idea, but it seems like if we have so many new cars on the road, then those cars should be driving during memorial day. The fact that instead of increasing cars trips that we have declined, speaks to the mass of people who aren't driving for memorial. Good for them!

Indeed anecdotal evidence supports this. People I've talked to this weekend won't even consider a 30 minute drive without taking into consideration high gas prices (and the fact that many Texans drive massive SUVs and Pick up trucks) and want to carpool or simply find arrangements that don't require a long drive.

I think that as gas prices increase that we will notice a refinement of the term "long drive". I know that to some a long drive is anything over 2-3 hours, but if gas is 6 dollars a gallon, suddenly a long drive may become much shorter.

At any rate memorial day in Austin definitely feels like the calm before the storm...the markets are closed in the US, gasoline is steady here at 3.89-3.79 a gallon, and people seem to be adjusting so far to driving less for special occasions.

This is not a big deal though. The real question is whether people will be able to adjust to driving less for work, school, shopping and other essential trips. We'll see on Tuesday...

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