Visual Guide to the Financial Crisis

I found a great visual guide to the current financial shake up. It doesn't include everything (it stops going down the rabbit hole at 'falling home prices') but it does illustrate the amount to which a flawed narrative can cascade through the system, causing a illusion of prosperity. I call this system the 'free market' in all of its iterations, both up and down

Click here for the link

http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/

I think what we're seeing a two-fold development: the (potential) on-going failure of narratives that don't include or take into account peak oil. And two, (potentially) the beginning of the failure of our cultural narrative of progress. I don't want to sound the funeral bell for this idea of 'progress' quite yet, but overall its not looking good. The market will probably rebound at some point, and the economy as well. The question is what ceiling of economic activity will cause energy prices to skyrocket again? In the coming decades that ceiling will be getting lower and lower, and the lowest price of energy will get higher and higher.

Solar Panelists for December

The December 10th meeting will feature a discussion on Solar Panels. We'll have Solar Panel Installers presenting, as well as someone from Austin Energy talking about the solar energy rebate.

Looking ahead to January, we'd like to invite neighborhood and local action groups into our meeting. Our goal is find out where our interests overlap and what action can be mutual action. Certainly, there is power in numbers.

Speaker Michael J Osborne of Austin Energy

Michael J Osborne, of Austin Energy, was kind enough to stop by our monthly meeting and say a few words about Austin Energy's efforts to lead the way in energy efficiency, and how the organization is charting its way into the 21st century - a century sure to be marked by energy scarcity rather than abundance.

I thought the most interesting part of his presentation was talking about a vision of replacing the current 'base load' of energy - the fraction of power plants that are always 'on' - with renewable energy. Slowly, of course and perhaps that base load will always include a fraction of traditional energy. This to me really seems to be moving past the rhetoric, moving past the ideals espoused by so many in the peak oil movement, and getting down to brass tacks -- exactly HOW we are going to make the transition from traditional energy into renewables.

Talking about wind and solar power in Texas, this is a reality happening NOW. Of course my belief is that renewables will NOT allow us to live as we are right now ... conservation and 'cutting back' will HAVE TO be a part of our future energy use. But the future won't be the dark ages, we will use some form of energy to heat our homes and to power mechanical devices -- as humanity has always done.

I think the choice is between saying the future will be awful, which inspires fearful complacency -- and saying that we can use our immense bank of fossil fuels to build an infrastructure of renenwable energy - wind farms, solar panels etc.

The peak oil movement needs to take a cue from Al Gore - that narrative MATTERS. Immensely. The peak oil movement needs to coalesce behind a narrative, not for the sake of conformity, but for the sake of DOING SOMETHING rather than simply being helpless seers of an energy-poor future.

Oil at $67?

Who knew that oil could possibly go this low? I'm sure that many in the peak oil community are a little shocked by this recent development in oil prices. I think we judge the credibility of informational sources by their predictive ability, and certainly 'peak oil' as concept has taken hit in the last few weeks especially. Looking at oil prices seems to bear that theory out, but looking at the larger context of the economy reveals a new wrinkle in the peak oil story.

I think the latest conceptual thinking of peak oil theory has been enumerated by John Michael Greer, who wrote "The Long Descent". It's a great work on peak oil, and somewhat of a departure from the norm of peak oil discourse.

The most important point that he makes is the idea of 'living through history -- that is, the human conception of time, and the truncated timelines of our history texts. This might sounds tangential to the topic of peak oil until we examine the narrative of the peak oil movement: collapse, disaster, starvation, famine, war, failed economy, etc. Not to say that these events won't happen, but we will probably be hard-pressed to link these disparate events back to the over-arching theme of peak oil.

Ultimately our experience, our lived experience will not be a sudden moment of calamity followed by an 'ah-ha' realization that peak oil is the man behind the curtain...rather we will experience decline, unyielding and progressive, followed by period of 'recovery' once again leading to decline. The slow parabolic unraveling of the 'western' mode of life.

To bring it back to the price of oil, why is oil at $67 a barrel, and still falling? We have perhaps entered one of the first of many 'minor calamities', the small disasters that will bleed western economies by 1,000 cuts. Its no mistake that oil hit $147 a barrel before it began its steady decline, we are likely to see each period of decline start out with rapidly inflating oil prices, as the recovery phase seems like it will restore the lost wealth and prestige of our economy. But this is an illusion, as the era of easy energy, and easy, cheap 'work' that it did for us are over. Now the true cost of oil will become more and more apparent before the economy sinks once again and oil prices are slashed along with falling demand.

Public Transit

From the Steering Committee meeting: Crude Awakening will begin to focus more of its attention on public transit, as an actionable outgrowth of the peak oil problem.

Peak Oil is beginning to be evident in the prices especially of gasoline, and high prices are causing all sorts of behavioral changes, most notable is a increased reliance on public transit, biking and walking. Thus a focus on enhancing existing networks of efficient transportation seems to be a good use of the group's energy, and a sensible response to the problem of Peak Oil in Austin, Texas.

This does not mean of course that Crude Awakening will neglect other aspects of the Peak Oil problem...certainly plenty needs to be accounted for. It does mean however that Crude Awakening recognizes that in addition to personal preparation, that the entire community needs to work together for solutions, and that solutions that only involve individuals will be inadequate to ensure a smooth transition to a more efficient, less energy-intense mode of living.

Twitter as an Organizing Tool

Crude Awakening is on twitter: @crudeawakening . Twitter is SMS/Web updates about the status of our organization. To receive Crude Awakening's updates to your phone (information about local meetings, field trips, conferences and peak oil news) simply text this message (minus the quotes): "follow crudeawakening" to the phone number 4040-4 . It will ask you for a user name - text one back and you are set getting updates to your phone. Please be aware of your texting package because twitter isn't totally free on that end...

If you aren't familiar with Twitter, you should be. A free SMS/Texting tool, if twitter seems totally pointless its because organizations haven't yet taken advantage of twitter on a large scale...at least they haven't gotten much attention for doing so. Many large news organizations are on Twitter, and Barack Obama recently announced Joe Biden as his vice president via Twitter.

Twitter allows one person from a phone OR from the web to send out announcements to anyone "following" them. The advantage of using Twitter over regular texting is that you don't need to know everyone's phone number, and you can be "followed" by people you've never met. In this way Twitter allows a two-way flow of followers, rather than the 'traditional' method of having to collect numbers or email addresses.

From a designer's standpoint Twitter is great because it allows you to totally customize the background image for the page...something that myspace allows, but not anyone else (not facebook, not meetup...) This might sound like a detail, but when it comes to branding its important especially in the age of such diversified branding spaces (social networks).

The Oil Drum @theoildrum is on Twitter, and I'm sure other peak oil sites aren't far behind. I think one of the biggest barriers to adoption of this technology by peak oil groups is a reluctance to embrace new technology in general -- because of a fear that it might go away soon. While those fears may or may not be justified (I would wager they are) we live in the present moment. And in this moment, Twitter is a great technology and a great way to organize. So let's get over it. Oil's going away but we still drive...so let's use the 'now' to prepare for the 'soon'.

Motorcylcing Chernobyl

Found the strangest blog -- about a woman motorcycling through Chernobyl. Apparently the radiation isn't uniform, the winds spread it unevenly across the countryside. She carries a Geiger counter with her on her motorcycle. The pictures are utterly amazing, and whats more, the stories about the men fighting the fire, and the villagers who went to watch the initial fire, totally unaware that they were looking into the burning guts of a nuclear reaction. I can't fathom going into Chernobyl on a motorcycle, but what a story!

Click here to go to her blog

More psychology

NOTE: I'm not a psychologist, and I don't play one on TV. These are my opinions after being in the world for a few years, and not scientific fact: I've met more than a few people who are gravely concerned about peak oil. And rightfully so. For someone who has just discovered peak oil, the shock of the information can be pretty overwhelming and the emotional response can be strong to the point of bordering on the physical (tightness of the chest etc).

I'm not a trained anything, but for me the most important thing in that kind of situation is to allow your body and your mind to act and react. Now that sounds strange and maybe a little obvious I know -- but the immediate danger is that a person in a state of panic doesn't allow themselves to move beyond the panic. They keep rehashing the facts in their mind, and as a result keep themselves in a state of perpetual shock.

You don't need a Ph.D. to realize that this mind-state is extremely unhealthy. We need to let the information affect our minds and our bodies without trying to relive that experience. This is not always easy, especially with stressful abstractions like peak oil: we are problem-solvers, and if the problem cannot be easily solved we are in danger of fatigue.

After the initial shock of the new, there is a shaking off, and a period of calm that can be had if we have enough awareness to let the more 'animal' part of our brain take over. The reptilian brain is reactive, effective and totally illogical -- that being said, it allows animals to do what humans have a very difficult time doing: moving on. And thats what we need to allow ourselves to do - to move on!

Again, this sounds like easy, obvious advice, and thats the point. We tend to make things more complicated than they are. For example: many people talk about 'running to the hills' to 'escape' peak oil and its various affects. For most people this is a radical change of lifestyle, and personally I think that it doesn't matter.

We need to stop thinking in terms of things we are going to do to our life, and start realizing that we are living our survival each and every day. For instance today someone found out about peak oil, and now they are worried, panicked and unsettled...all normal reactions. But is that person going to allow themselves to cling to an old paradigm, to deny, or worse yet to try and change everything around them so they themselves don't have to change? What we need to realize is that our reaction to stress and worry IS our survival. If the very thought of peak oil traumatizes a person into inaction, then how will long lines at gas stations affect them? Even if they have moved into the country and stockpiled food, if their psychology is not prepared to roll with the punches, then that person is in just as much trouble as anyone else.

What need to is not NECESSARILY food rations -- what we need more than anything, right now, in this moment, is the ability to roll with the punches, to change. Not unfeeling, but to evaluate the situation as it presents itself, and realize that we need to adapt to that world, and only that world which presents itself. So feel that panic, that worry, that helplessness, but be aware; its only a reaction. And then get on with it.

Pivot Point

I like the concept of a pivot. To me it is the pin on which something rotates, but the implication is that the pin itself does not more, but rather is a fixed point, a reference. When we think of history, we tend to think of pivot points, of 'pivotal' junctures in history where the entire structure of human events shifted...

As I'm interested in the history of oil, I tend to view much of history through the lens of energy, as a quest to acquire the best, most secure supply of energy. The United States in the 20th century was remarkably gifted with a vast supply of oil, and ever since its production hit peak in the early 1970s, it has done well not only to control but to assure a steadily increasing supply of oil.

I can't say with certainty what events will be important to historians in 200 years, or even in 5 years. Personally I believe the decade of the 1970's was the critical pivot point in the history of oil, which more than centuries and more than political or philosophical movements will bracket modernity. Modernity has always been about speed, and speed, in the modern world, was delivered by fossil fuels.

In the 1970's it became evident that the US was no longer the swing producer for the world...in other words the US no longer controlled the world price of oil, as it no longer controlled the excess supply. The 1970's showed the world the price of relying on fossil fuel and the oil shocks in the early 70's led the drive towards conservation and prudence.

The 1970's also gave us the Carter Doctrine, which stated that the US would use military force to defend its 'interests' in the Persian Gulf. I'm sure such policy has always been in effect, but to state it with such rawness and boldness signaled a new era in elite and public consciousness about oil.

Much of the ramifications of the 1970's were obscured by the Saudis, who stepped in to fulfill the role of swing producer, and by the deregulation of the financial markets in the 1980's.

Before the 1970's, oil had mostly been a regional issue, and where the world had been concerned there was always plenty of oil. Instead of dealing with the obvious problems of an oil addicted world, the US choose to pursue more oil resources, to drill more, to find other sources of this valuable energy.

And yet the problems of basing an economy and a society on oil -- those never went away. They were simply deferred by 30 or so years. And now, once again, we are waking up to the grim reality that the reality has NOT changed, that oil dependence has gotten worse instead of better AND the fundamental problem of an addiction to a depleting resource was still in play.

The world pivoted in the 1970s. The momentum of the Saudis, of the North Sea oil, of Prudhoe Bay in Alaska -- those discoveries carried further into the age of oil. But the truth is that we're dealing with a shift that took place almost 40 years ago and once again the world is on the cusp of a great pivot. I can't say what that is, but I doubt very much that it will be easy, and I doubt very much that the world has ever seen anything like what is coming in the next 30 or so years.

We live in a fascinating time.

Great Quote

"I suggest that this is a good time to think soberly about our responsibilities to our descendants – those who will ring out the Fossil Fuel Age," said Adm. Hyman G. Rickover, father of the nuclear Navy.

I found this in an article by Rod Dreher, who wrote a great piece in the
Dallas Morning News about why America is psychologically unprepared for the ramifications of peak oil - mainly the belief that we can do whatever want without incurring unintended or negative side effects. I still believe in the future of this country, its just hard to see so many people living so foolishly, and so selfishly, and to believe that they will make moral and ethical choices in a time of scarcity, when all we've been raised on is the philosophy of unending abundance.

I believe in the fundamental goodness of people. I also believe in their capacity to do evil. The wildcard is usually the choice between the two.

Georgia-Russian war: Energy Conflict?

I watched an amazing segment on Democracy Now about the Russian - Georgian conflict. I was honestly surprised to learn that it was pretty much exclusively about oil, I guess because the mainstream media really seems to focus on democracy blah blah blah. Network news is junk food for the mind.

Michael Clare, author of Rising Powers, Shrinking Planet, talked with Amy Goodman (The anchor for Democracy Now). He mentioned the pipeline built with the urging of the US during the Clinton administration -- and how that pipeline was an attempt to undercut Russian political and economic power over Europe. The strange thing of course is why Georgia would have risked provoking its much more powerful neighbor, and Klare speculates (though I should add without conclusive evidence) that the Neo-conservative faction in the US government led the Georgians to believe that the US would lend more significantly more military aid then was actually politically feasible.



And now because of the conflicting foreign policies coming out of the US (the neo-con faction and the State department) Russia is now within easy striking distance of the pipeline, giving Russia significant economic and political leverage against Europe, NATO and to a certain extent the United States. At least for now.

Sometimes I get nostalgic for the chessmasters of yester-year. It occurs to me that Henry Kissinger was an evil bastard, but at least he could recognize the 'game'. The Neo-Cons seem to be evil and totally clueless. That doesn't make them any less dangerous of course, but instead of worrying about the relative strength of the US, they seem to concerned only with their own exceedingly narrow goals. They seem to myopic and totally inflexible. I'm surprised they haven't been shoved out of power yet.

Overbuilt market...

"Overbuilt Market creating modern ghost towns"
-View the MSNBC Article here.

Peak oil is a strange phenomenon. One year ago oil at $100 a barrel would have been inconceivable for all but a few commentators. And yet here we are, oil is hovering around $115 a barrel and people are actually celebrating! And so the cycle has begun, with a run up of prices (it was only a month ago that oil hit a high of $147 a barrel), demand destruction, followed by a drop in price...then the inevitable run up of demand as people adjust to the new price regime and the following run up of price. And so on and so forth. IT DOESN'T HAVE TO BE THIS WAY. If we let the market dictate price then it will be this way, and probably much worse. If government were to put a floor on gas prices, then people could actually begin to act like rational consumers instead of following the completely irrational marketplace for global crude.

Back to the headline: The 'Overbuilt' Market of homes. Home builders are going out of business because of increasing costs and decreasing demand for houses built on the periphery of cities.
There's even a website devoted to this: The Home Builder Implode-O-Meter, monitoring the decline and fall of the home building industry.

It makes me wonder what kind of cycles we will start seeing with the fluctuation in the price of oil and gasoline. As gas gets cheaper, will ex-urban houses enjoy a brief renaissance before being crushed once again by the run-up in price? Or will buyers wise up after the second or third boom and bust cycle?

I think what we're probably witnessing is the extreme boom and bust cycle returning to America. Where during the 1980s and 1990s the US enjoyed a relatively stable economy untroubled by massive oil shocks, the economy of the new millennium will not be so lucky. We don't have the global surplus of crude oil to stabilize the world (or local) economies, not like we did in the 1970s.

Video Archives

CrudeAwakening.org now is presenting videos! I'll be updating them on the homepage as well as on our video archive page. It's new and expect it grow rapidly, especially as Matt Simmons, Richard Heinberg et al. are appearing with increasing frequency on the cable news shows, and as Peak Oil is increasingly visible throughout the mainstream media.

If you have any embed codes, interesting videos or audio samples, please email them to jon@crudeawakening.org

The latest is Richard Heinberg talking shop on Al-Jaazera TV, see above

Get out of Debt -- NOW!

That's all. This isn't an admonishment for spending too much on a credit card, or for possessing large levels of debt. It doesn't matter where you are, but rather to recognize your current level of debt -- and prepare for peak oil by GETTING OUT OF DEBT.
As much as possible do this, especially on credit cards and smaller loans that are easier to pay back. Many people who come to meetings have a bit of a panicked look about them, and are wondering how they can best prepare for peak oil. Decreasing the amount you owe is a great way to start, and smaller interest payments will leave more money in the pocket to save, or to continue paying down debt.
As individuals and as a nation we've taken on an incredible amount of debt. One thing that is for certain is that the standard "business as usual" model of infinite growth will not continue. And that means rates for borrowers (and lenders) will increase rather than decrease. All this means is that individuals will make less money each year and face increasing credit rates.
Reduce your vulnerability to this trend by paying down debt now, when you have the spare assets to allow you to do that.

Call for bloggers

Crude Awakening has undergone quite a few changes in the past few months. We've totally revamped the website, going from a static site to blogs, calendars and updating content. We changed the look, and hopefully made information easier to access. We have also give the site a new look, and we're currently working on a complete re-branding package, complete with business cards, letterhead and of course a matching website.

The next step in the evolution of crudeawakening.org is to get a variety of voices from different walks of life to comment on peak oil, on an energy-aware life, on psychology and whatever else comes up.

Please contact us at info@crudeawakening.org if you are interested

Thanks!

CrudeAwakening.org Staff

They Finally get it?

The Mainstream Media (or MSM for those in the know) have been reporting more and more about oil, gas prices and the state of oil production in the world. And yet even as recently as a week ago, MSNBC.com could run a story about the 'end' of the energy 'bubble.' Stories about gas prices, from sources, seemed to miss the crucial detail about supply and demand. China has taken the blame for increased gas prices, even though per capita the average Chinese citizen uses 1/5 of the energy that the average US citizen uses.

Those days are over, on MSNBC.com and at the Washington Post, a new editorial era seems to be upon us: "Global Pressures Forge a New Energy Reality" trumpets the Washington Post. Citing supply and demand factors, as well as the growth of China, the Post makes the bold assertion that gas prices, particularly for those in the US, will not ever retreat back to prices seen in the late 60's or during the decade of the 1990's.

This is not exactly acknowledging peak oil, the author hems and haws in typical DC fashion, but make no mistake the article lays out the current world situation, however, without taking the next step -- that is to try and imagine a world suddenly being deprived of cheap, abundant oil.

I imagine that step has to wait for the markets, that is the short term energy traders, to catch up, and really look a year or two down the line and realize whats coming. I doubt any news organization wants to be blamed for mass panic, but given the government's total inability to do ANYTHING (see Katrina response) a small, tight feeling of panic in everyone's stomach might motivate them to go out and DO SOMETHING.

I think the real lesson here is that we in the Peak Oil community need to continue our focus on research and out reach but realize its no good waiting for others to come around. WE ARE RIGHT, and the debate is officially over. Of course, life intervenes, and theres no way to absolutely know the future -- but if you want to get a good idea of what the next 50 years will look like, then the peaking of resources available to humanity is a good place to start.

When historians look back on this age, they will probably date this century as starting in 2008 -- the first time the world is staring into the abyss. Unlike the 1970s, there is little spare capacity in the world...theres no way out of this one. The age of scarcity is upon the mainstream.

Energy reality

It seems that everyone is talking about $4 gasoline. There’s a lot of opinion about what is driving that, what effect it will have on our economy, will it continue to increase, what can we do to increase production, develop alternatives, etc; powerful political and industrial figures are proposing solutions to “drive down the price at the pump”. But, before we all get bent out of shape over what we pay for gasoline, we should try to get a better understanding of what the energy contained in that gallon of gasoline is worth to humans.

A fit, healthy person can generate 200 watts of power to do work; and given the right circumstances, can do that for 8 hours a day. They don’t do it leaning on their shovels, either; we’re talking about hard, grueling work.

A gallon of gasoline contains 33.530 KiloWatt-Hours of energy ( = 33530 Watt-hours), so 33,500 Watt-hours/gallon ¸ 200 Watts/person @ 168 person-hours / gallon.

So we see that there are about 168 hours of a person’s equivalent energy contained in a gallon of gasoline. That’s about equal to a month’s worth of 40 hour weeks, so the human-energy content of a gallon of gasoline is approximately equal to one month of human work.

Now, the USA consumes over 388 million gallons of gasoline per day, so 388,600,000 gallons/day * 30 days/month @ 11.658 Billion gallons/month and, 11.658 Billion gallons/month * 1 person-month/gallon @11,658,000,000 persons.

In plain language, we in the USA are utilizing a workforce of more than 11.6 billion (that’s with a B) human-energy-equivalent slaves working 40 hours per week, 52 weeks per year to fuel our trips to the mall, idle at teller machines, take business junkets, blow leaves around our neighborhoods and take cross-country vacations every year – among other things.

Gasoline is currently selling for ~ $4/gallon, so the cost of our energy slaves today is 388.6 million gallons/day * $4/gallon ¸ 11.6B persons @ 13¢/day/person. Thirteen cents per day per person. It’s no wonder that we squander an irreplaceable (therefore, priceless) resource on trivial activities, it’s too damn cheap!

Oil Bubble? Lets not be hasty...

From MSNBC.com:

"Given the market’s inability to spark a larger rally Friday following the week’s big sell-off, is it time to declare the energy bubble over?"

[Full article]

This just shows the shallowness of mainstream reporting -- and that despite the meteoric rise in oil prices over the last 6 months, that "peak oil" still has not truly transformed into a framework or paradigm for the vast majority of people.

It is also a strange thought -- that oil at $130 US a barrel would be thought of as the new bottom for oil. Whereas only a year ago oil at even $100 a barrel would have been counted as a calamity of the highest order.

I can't say where oil is going from here...focusing on the price sometimes diverts from the true issue at hand anyways. But I do know that oil at $130 a barrel is still far too cheap, and to accurately account for the massive amount of work that oil does for us -- and to ensure that our society keeps the transition momentum moving -- oil NEEDS to keep rising in price.

Despite the gloom and doom of a faltering economy, oil's rise has been slow enough to allow people to transition their habits, their mindsets and their spending. Problems will arise if oil skyrockets in price -- a sustained, even rise in price is the best case scenario for anyone who 'believes' in peak oil.

Demand Destruction

Watching gas prices rise in the last few months from under 3 dollars a gallon to a nation average of around 4.10 a gallon, I keep expecting a drop in price as a result of demand destruction here in the United States. Reading articles lately has left me with the idea that even though demand destruction will occur here in the US and throughout the world, that oil prices will not dip much, and certainly not to the extent that they did during the 1980s oil glut.

The reason can be summed up by the export land model, which states that a nation's oil exports will drop faster than their production rates because the nation will use more of its own oil and therefore have less available for sale on the world market.

Thus Mexico (for example), who is experiencing fast declines of oil production, is also experiencing economic growth which is using an increasing amount of its oil domestically. I read an article here that hypothesized that Mexico will have NO oil left for export, given current trends, by the year 2010.

Mexico, the sixth largest producer of oil in the world (as of 2007) at 3.71 million barrels per day, currently accounts for imports of 1.116 million barrels per day to the United States, currently third behind Canada and Saudi Arabia. ^[citation]

Between 2006-2007, while Mexico's production was essentially flat, its exports decreased by 15%.^[citation]

Thus, we will have to make other arrangements. And fast. Every single energy producer/exporter is going through this process and chances are that we may hit peak exports before we hit peak oil. Either way the energy available on the world market will be less and less, and perhaps much more quickly than peak oil production.

Break Point

I've been reading "A Thousand Barrels A Second" by Peter Tertzakian, a book about the peaking of oil production. Tertzakian introduces an interesting concept called the "Break Point", a society's re-evaluation point of an energy source.

In the past break points happened, for the most part, to coincide with the discovery of a more energy-rich, aka 'better' fuel, think of the transition of industrializing England from burning wood to burning coal, or the world-wide transition in the 19th century from whale oil to petroleum.

Of course history provides examples of break points where societies were simply unable to move to a higher source of energy / raw materials. Jerod Diamond has a couple of examples of such societies in his book "Collapse" but rather than refer to a scarcity of resources, Diamond typically seems to reference an over-abundance of people. In my mind these are one in the same problem, in our day and age we can look at the balance of population to available resources.

Our re-evaluation of petroleum hasn't nearly been hit, although we are noticing a minor change in driving habits. For the first time in 5 years, the number of miles driven in the US declined. Still our way of life is intact. I believe that in order for our society to truly re-evaluate petroleum, the price of gasoline will have to double or triple in price, as it did in 1973 and again 1979. That world was able to re-adjust its energy sources, and continue growing.

Our break point will be different. As we are approaching peak production in numerous areas (including, I believe, peak food, peak minerals, peak 'work' and peak wealth) we will also reach a break point in the American dream, the concept that anyone can be rich, the idea of perpetual growth and an ever increasing level of wealth and prosperity.

Our energy break point will quickly become a mental break point. Jimmy Carter's 'malaise' speech is mocked for its dour tone, but mark my words we will in the next 5-10 years hear a US president address exactly the same crisis of confidence, and within ourselves we will each have to reformulate (as we do many many times in our lives) exactly what it is we expect out of life and how we will exist within the limits imposed on us by our environment.

Recovery is 6 months away...

I'm getting sick of reading quotes like these:

'Despite the negative [economic] numbers, "the worst of the hemorrhaging is behind us" and a modest recovery is likely to take shape next year, said Bernard Baumohl, managing director of the Economic Outlook Group.'


Full Article

This is the fiction we are sold, that recovery is looming on the horizon even as more and more signs point to unsustainable exploitation of natural resources, to declining energy supplies and ultimately to a period of sustained economic decline.

The problem of course is that stories like these lull us into a trance of thinking that recovery, like so many times in the past, is just over the horizon.

Its time to face the music. Its time to stop kidding ourselves and accept that economic decline rather than growth will indelibly mark the 21rst century, but that 'growth' and 'decline' are relative terms. If we keep our head about us, we can redefine growth. Growth means having more time in our lives instead of less. Growth means physical strength rather than obesity. Growth means re-discovering a spiritual connection. Growth means accepting natural limits of ecology, of nature and of human ingenuity instead of denying those things.

But growth requires humility in the face of limits, and articles like the one that appeared at www.msnbc.com do not guide us towards humility rather they lead us down the dangerous path of illusion and delusion.

Let's accept whats coming and stop accepting without comment those viewpoints who would try and pacify our will to change.

Preparation for Peak Oil?

I've talked to many people about preparation for the manifestations of Peak Oil in the U.S., in Texas, in Austin. I've known about peak oil for around 4 years, but haven't given much thought to serious preparation. Now that it seems like an accelerating reality, I've been talking to people more and more about how to prepare, and I've come up with a basic plan that takes into account my 'meager' income and savings, and the fact that I live in a rented apartment.

Being a single guy and in relatively good health and physical shape, I think that the most important things for me to think about are my psychological health, and short term, 1-3 month needs in case of an emergency. That means thinking about storing food and water to sustain me, having cooking materials and water filtration systems, thinking about my personal safety and security, as well as the security of my belongings.

After having taken care of the physical aspect (food water etc) which I think is #1 no question, I need to tackle the element that I think is less appreciated, but that will, in the long run, be most important: my psychological well being.

The response to a crisis (which I believe will be a short-lived but serious break down in services, food delivery etc) will either be panic leading to poor decisions, or apathy leading to inaction. I believe mental rehearsals for such an emergency to be important, as well as concrete plans to deal with situations that may arise.

In reading other blogs + articles about peak oil, I keep seeing the idea of "flexibility". Our plans need to be flexible, our power sources need to be flexible, our psychological make up needs to be flexible.

That doesn't mean a lack of commitment, it simply means fostering an ability to adapt. And this of course is different for everyone, but I think if people take an honest look at their lives, they will realize how brittle most of the systems they depend on. Much of this can't be helped, hence preparation in terms of food storage etc. But certainly our concept of ourselves as committed to one and only one way of life, to one mode of living needs to change, and change fast.

Oil, how I love thee...

Hi. My name is Derick. I'm addicted to oil.

Crude oil is a wonderful substance, like no other. It provides fuels, like gasoline, that contain huge amounts of energy in a fairly safe, transportable form which allows us to do tremendous amounts of work at a very low cost. Gas at $4 per gallon is still a fantastic bargain.

Consider what it was like before we learned to harness crude oil's power with the internal combustion engine. The best means of transportation were horses, boats and eventually bicycles and trains.

Today, you can own a car with the power of a huge team of horses which can go faster than any horse could dream of going, can keep going hour after hour with only brief stops for “feeding” and at a very low cost per mile covered and you can cross the country from coast to coast in three days. You can go anywhere you want, whenever you want.

Once we figured out how to harness crude oil, air travel became possible and most boats and trains went over to crude oil simply because it was far more efficient than the next best alternative.

And the next best alternative is the real issue. What is the next best alternative? We don't have a good answer to this question yet, and this is the crux of our problem. We are used to a cheap form of easily accessible energy. The alternatives suffer from significant disadvantages such as higher costs of production, inability to produce sufficient quantities, lower energy capacity by volume and weight, greater pollution, insufficiently developed technologies, etc.

For example, nuclear energy is more dangerous. There is the direct risk of an incident like Chernobyle (or Mayak, or Windscale, or Three Mile Island), but even setting aside accidents, there is all the nuclear waste -- we still have not figured out how to deal with nuclear waste in a reasonable and sustainable way. Dropping it into the depths of the ocean or burying it on Indian reservations is neither reasonable nor sustainable.

I'm not saying that we should not develop alternative sources of energy. To the contrary, developing alternatives should be our highest priority. But we need to understand why crude oil is such a great addiction.

Crude oil is like crack. It is the quickest way to get you where you want to go with the least investment. And once you are hooked on the quick high of crack, it's hard to go back.

My name is Derick. I'm addicted to Crude Oil. But I'm worried that going to meetings isn't going to be enough. I need an alternative place to fix my need. Please help.

And for those who asked, I prefer my crude bitter, not sweet....

-Derick for Crudeawakening.org

Goodbye Airlines

I've been thinking about this for a while, and I've been talking to my friends about it. Most of them think in terms of straight supply/demand equation: if the demand for air travel keeps rising, then so will supply, thereby determining price. That is assuming of course a fixed cost for jet fuel. Which is simply not the case. Jet fuel has risen quite dramatically in price.

Indeed the demise of the airline industry has been written about quite a bit, so I don't feel the need to address it too much in depth, other than to briefly point out some of the smaller airlines have been failing, and the larger ones have been trying to merge to cut costs.

Of course if jet fuel is rising, then there is nothing that can be done...despite mergers, cost cutting measures, layoffs and the like at some point someone has to fly the damn plane, and jet fuel has to be burned to propel the thing through space. Maybe passengers should be charged by weight (bad joke)

But the truth of the matter is that airlines won't be around forever in their current form because most people won't be able to afford to fly. Thats just the reality, hard as it may be for people to accept.

Of course at this point, a certain amount of denial is to be expected, but I hope no one is surprised when the government attempts to bail out, then takeover the ailing airlines industry...and I would assume after a few years of failing to make any money, will give up the enterprise all together.

From CNNmoney.com:

"High fuel prices have caused airfares to skyrocket. And the economy has caused some Americans to postpone or downsize their travel plans. Fewer tourists are coming to Hawaii, and some think the problems are only beginning.

ATA and Aloha Airlines have already gone bust. And starting next week, two Japanese airlines will increase fuel surcharges on flights to Hawaii by 43%. American Airlines just announced plans to eliminate its Chicago-Honolulu route at the end of the year."

the article is here

The Future of Design (ers)

I was combing through the Energy Bulletin's newly redesigned Drupal site and I came across a link to a really interesting New York Times blog about fashion and design post peak-oil (the new york times mentioned peak oil! Imagine that!)

Anyways the blog is Called the moment, and its not specifically about design post-peak but this blog entry was done by a European correspondent.

The post itself is kind of short and talks about 3 designs from the past that seem interesting or useful...but the concept caught my attention, its always amazing how many facets there are to the peaking of energy supplies, but also to the myriad ways that humanity has responded to low-energy conditions in the past and what hints and clues that will give us to any future response.

If perhaps art and design seem to have lost their primacy due to the multitudes of diversions in the modern world, I expect the hand-made to take a much larger role in our lives even in the next 3-5 years. Already the DIY (Do-it Yourself) culture is in the middle of a bloom and gasoline is only 4 dollars a gallon.

Imagine the beautiful things 10-dollar-a-gallon gasoline will necessitate. But not just beautiful, because at the moment I feel we are surrounded by so much visual clutter that beauty has a difficult time breaking through. Of course much of that has to do with the spaces that we cultivate in our own lives, giving ourselves time and space to appreciate whats truly amazing...

The peak oil movement needs to continue to incorporate artists, designers, writers...these people will realize a primacy in our culture that has been missing for at 50 years.

MSNBC: fuel costs shape Suburbs

In the past two days I've read an article each on CNN.com and MSNBC.com about how gas prices are affecting the 'American Dream' aka the alleged desire that every American has to live in a far-flung suburb and spend the better part of two hours ferrying from home to job to social outings.

Its never been my dream, and even people I talk to who live in the suburbs rarely express some fondness for spending so much time locked in automobiles. More often then not, it was about economics, plain and simple. The inexpensive houses were located far from the city center, and driving 20 miles one way to commute was not a big deal when gas was less than a dollar a gallon. Even now, such commutes are pinching consumer spending but have yet to force many people out of their homes.

Yet the economics are changing, and so are the behaviors of those looking to buy homes. From MSNBC.com:

Real estate agents, transportation officials and industry surveys indicate that home buyers are placing more importance on cutting their gas bills and commute times than they have since the oil shocks of the 1970s.

Full article here

Honestly I've been praying for the death of the suburbs for as long as I can remember. I realize a need still exists for affordable housing, and that much investment will be lost due to the devaluation of inexcusably far-flung suburbs, but honestly, isn't it about time that people start concentrating around downtowns and around rail stations. Unfortunately most of the homeowners who will be hurt by the suburban housing downturn were part of a system that was bigger than them: that was designed to grant risky loans in exchange for the illusion of infinite growth and ever-growing housing values.

It will certainly be interesting as it dawns on Americans that endless freeways, sprawling suburbs and 2 hour commutes are a piss poor investment at best, and at worst a ruinous mal-appropriation of resources. James Howard Kunstler calls the American suburbs "the biggest misallocation of resources in human history".

Statesman: Mexican Oil...

Just finished reading an article in the Austin American Statesman on the state of the Mexican oil industry. The article examined the state of Petroleos Mexicanos (Pemex), the nationalized Mexican oil company in relation to American companies that are drilling in the Gulf of Mexico. Apparently Pemex doesn't have the money or the know-how to develop deep sea oil fields and American companies do. There is a potential dispute in the works since it appears that Shell oil is developing oil fields that may or may not cross the international border, something the Statesman dubbed the "drinking straw effect" whereby oil platforms tap into a well that spans two countries or regions.

The subtext of course is that Mexico's oil production is collapsing, down 9 percent to 2.87 million barrels a day in the first 4 months of 2008, according to an article in the International Herald Tribune. And so Mexico is searching for ways to improve its oil output. The platform in discussion in the article would only be good for 100,000 barrels of oil per day, less than 1/10th of 1 percent of world demand, and about 4/10ths of 1 percent of current US demand.

Of course the article ends thusly: " 'The easy oil is gone' said Russ Ford, Shell's technical vice president for the Americas." Unfortunately the phrase 'peak oil' wasn't mentioned at all in the article, but the undercurrent of the article is clear: oil is becoming more scarce, and so more developed industries are looking to whatever fields they can, especially to those in countries where the oil industry has been nationalized -- such countries being typically less technologically savvy and geared more towards providing inexpensive oil for its citizens.

Allowing foreign companies to develop Mexico's oil fields would be a change of course for Mexico, who has traditionally protected its oil reserves from outside according to the article in the Statesman.

Look for such trends to continue in the coming years, with the requisite concern in the host country about allowing foreign intervention. Wars have started this way, but the article pointed to interest in changing Mexican law to allow foreign companies to develop Mexican-owned oil fields.

--Jon

Subprime

Hopefully, everyone who’s reading this has heard of “sub-prime”...whether it be followed with “crisis”, “loans”, or whatever. it’s long been used to describe a loan to someone who has less-than-stellar credit. for the rest of us, it means a loan that looks more like a blackjack bet than an extension of credit.

a good friend who knows i was a financial planner a while back put to me an excellent question: if a client were to come to you and lay out their finances and those finances showed the client to be $100,000 in credit card debt, $250,000 in mortgage debt, $0 in savings, a monthly budget that exceeded the client’s monthly after-tax income of $4,000, two car notes that take up $1,200 per month, the client’s kids are scheduled to go to college (and have the client foot the bill) within a few years, the client’s parents were counting on the client to help support them in their old age, and the client had no retirement savings...what would you say to that client?

when he put it that way it was easy to answer. i’d actually spoken with several would-be clients who were in similar circumstances. as a financial planner, you can’t advise a person to declare bankruptcy. you can sure-as-heck tell them to seek the counsel of a good bankruptcy lawyer, though. these would be classic “sub-prime” clients.

what’s the u.s.’ credit score?

if the u.s. were to come to me seeking financial planning advice -- back when i was a planner -- i would have told it the same thing: go seek a good bankruptcy attorney. why? well, we have credit debt that can’t be paid back in one lifetime. we have social obligations through medicare and social security that compound the inability to re-pay any debt. we continue to spend billions of dollars per day in interest yet take out more loans from other countries to fund our overspending. our ability to take care of our kids through smart fiscal management and resource allocation is absolutely nil. the u.s.’ gasoline bill is devouring any personal, state, or federal incomes we eagerly hope we can maintain. and our plans for getting out of this mile-deep hole we’ve dug ourselves into involve griping about our situation without looking at what brought us here in the first place.

who’s the scapegoat?

in the sub-prime crisis -- quickly turning into the prime crisis, as well -- there are all sorts of culprits. greedy banks took advantage of duped customers. greedy credit card companies took advantage of unknowledgeable over-consumers. greedy mortgage-holders took advantage of easy credit. greedy things got greedy.

in the oil market, the list of culprits is getting longer by the day. greedy speculators are trying to turn illicit profits. greedy oil companies are making too much off of our poor, hapless citizenry. greedy convenience stores are trying to get more money out of our pockets. greedy OPEC members won’t turn on the spigots for us greedy drivers. greedy SUV owners are getting what’s coming to them. greedy things got greedy.

in the food markets, the list of culprits is about tapped out. greedy speculators, again. greedy hoarders keeping in warehouses what’s rightfully the “people’s” grain. greedy ethanol producers using all of the corn for fuel rather than food. greedy americans eat too much, get fat, and the rest of the world is paying for it.

this is classic avoidance. no one wants to look at what’s behind all of this -- the behaviors that brought us here in the first place. it’s so much easier to blame one person or organization than to look into the mirror and fess up that the person looking back is the culprit. we, ourselves, are to blame for this. we’ve elected ineptitude (if we voted), counted on it to run things so that we wouldn’t need to learn how to manage our civic responsibilities, and we’re getting what we deserve. as the saying goes, “people get the government they deserve”. i’m not pointing fingers at you. i’m pointing fingers at me AND you. i’m just as much to blame as anyone reading this.

where’s a good lawyer when you need one

here’s the kicker, folks: there is no way to get out of this mess except to admit our ridiculous nature, take our lumps, and climb out of the hole. we have to start saying to future social security beneficiaries, “sorry, if i help you with your bills i will never, ever see the light of day.” we have to own up to our kids that we’re horrible at managing money, that we can’t help them pay for college, but we’ll try our best from now on to make sure we’re not leaving them a burden to carry. we have to get our expenses down enough to where we’re saving money...not spending credit. we need to take a hit on our house and move into something we can afford. we need to cut up our credit cards. we need to go into the credit hibernation-period, pay back to the extent we took out on future expectations, and begin the long, hard road to a better country.

there’s no “lawyer” in this, folks.

or, we can lament our bad luck, find more scapegoats, and prolong the agony until our house is foreclosed on, our cars repossessed, our parents are left to the salvation army, our kids fall into the same hole, our jobs are lost, we’re fighting with our fellow citizens over food and water, and on and on.

we have to stop looking to others for some negotiated solution. we have to begin negotiating with ourselves.

-Bob Hall for Crudeawakening.org

Peak Lending?

"Until mortgage lending picks up again, the housing market will have a hard time getting back on its feet. But until home prices stop falling, lenders are going to remain leery about writing a mortgage on an asset that is still losing value."

And thats the entire problem with our economy

From this article on MSNBC.com:

Can anyone see the problem here? Our entire economy depends on GROWTH. Not stagnation, not contraction, but growth. Can our economy grow in a sustainable manner, especially without growth in energy usage? I seriously doubt it.

Why US housing is losing value is a tough question to answer. I would imagine (and I'm no expert) that falling wages and a depressed economy have something to do with it, in addition to the increasing price of EVERYTHING else (via inflation or just plain supply and demand as with gasoline).

I think the question on everyone's mind is, what is the US housing stock worth without transportation to get to it? The answer is undoubtedly 'mostly worthless' except for a small core of communities with walking and biking access to essentials.

Thomas Friedman was wrong

"The World is Flat", by Thomas Friedman, was released in 2005, and it only took geologic reality 3 years to prove him wrong.

"Globalization is reversible. Higher energy prices are impacting transport costs at an unprecedented rate. So much so, that the cost of moving goods, not the cost of tariffs, is the largest barrier to global trade today."


View the entire CIBC World Markets Report here

In his book, Friedman identified 10 'flatteners', or trends that demolished the barriers to international trade and the movement of cash + services. Of course most of his 'flatteners' were either technological in nature, or involved the easy movement of goods and services. Friendman, in all of his infinite wisdom, did not realize that underpinning his entire theory of a new Globalized economy was an ocean of cheap, accessible oil.

See the wikipedia page about "The World is Flat"


I wonder what Mr. Friedman is thinking about his recent book now that oil is beginning its long, bumpy descent down the production curve? Or the nature of Globalization in general? What Friedman viewed as the inevitable path of history was of course only a temporary aberration riding the crest of a massive energy abundance.

The truth is that Globalization was a fantasy based on what I'm sure at the time seemed like an endless energy supply, so much so that Friedman didn't even feel like including it in his list of 10 'flatteners'. No amount of technology can compensate for the loss of oil. Globalization, to the extent that it exists today = a cheap, ever growing supply of oil. When this dries up, the world as we know it will be drastically altered.

from Reportonbusiness.com:

"The soaring cost of fuel is whittling away at the cheap-labor advantage enjoyed by Asian exporters, giving Canadian firms a welcome edge in their fight to win back business from Asian competitors.

Two bank economists argue in a report released Tuesday that because of higher fuel costs, shipping a standard 40-foot container from Shanghai to the east coast of North America now costs $8,000 (U.S.), up from $3,000 in 2000 when oil was just $20 a barrel."


Full Story Here

I realize that no one expects Wal-Mart to close up shop and go home, but it may happen sooner than most people realize, ditto for every other chain that relies on a far-flung distribution system. Target, Fred Myers, Costco, Home Depot, just to name a few...

These businesses will lose their competitive advantage as oil becomes more expensive, allowing opportunities for their stores to be purchased by local entrepreneurs or simply shut down. Main street might witness a come back as the massive, wealth-draining businesses shutter their stores. There will still be a need for tools, wood, supplies etc and local businesses will again have to fill this need.

The thing to remember is that technically we haven't hit peak oil, but demand is outstripping supply and causing oil prices to rise. Classic economics, and yet no one seems to be listening or wants to admit what's actually going on, and that we have a really unpleasant reality waiting for us as oil production does peak, and goes into terminal decline....

Reconnecting

This From CNN.com

[ Tracy and Adam Crews posted on iReport that their annual Memorial Day weekend has traditionally involved camping and fishing.

"Well, due to the continual rise in gas, we felt our only recourse was to nix the idea this year and stay home" in Jacksonville, Florida, they wrote.

Instead, the couple said they "decided to camp out in the backyard. We set the tent up, just finished installing our above ground pool, and cleaned up the grill. ... We have ourselves a campsite! It's been a blast!"]

--full article : here at cnn.com

Who says peak oil means only chaos and unhappiness? Certainly those things will play a role, but what about reconnecting with our communities, our families, our freetime, our children?

I've always maintained that peak oil is an opportunity to live richer, fuller lives, at least here in the US.

I'm past the point of worrying so much about the economic ramifications of peak oil, or about the state of a post-peak world. I have new confidence in myself, and I know that whatever happens we will deal with it. Its time to start hoping for the best, something the peak oil movement seems to have quite a bit of trouble with....

Memorial Weekend

Austin feels pretty empty this weekend and I never know what to believe: MSNBC claims that gas prices are "testing motorists" but that 31.7 million motorists are traveling for memorial, only slightly lower than last year(32 million in 2007)...but what if we take into account the number of new cars on the road since last year. According to wikipedia, an one year alone, America adds

"...3.69 million [vehicles] each year since 1960 with the largest annual growth between 1998 and 1999 as well as between 2000 and 2001 when the number of motor vehicles in the United States increased by eight million."
-Click here to see the whole article

So if we take into account the number of new vehicles on the road (lets say around 3 million given the sordid state of the economy) then suddenly the statistics quoted by MSNBC don't seem so rosy. I don't really have a solid statistic to back up this idea, but it seems like if we have so many new cars on the road, then those cars should be driving during memorial day. The fact that instead of increasing cars trips that we have declined, speaks to the mass of people who aren't driving for memorial. Good for them!

Indeed anecdotal evidence supports this. People I've talked to this weekend won't even consider a 30 minute drive without taking into consideration high gas prices (and the fact that many Texans drive massive SUVs and Pick up trucks) and want to carpool or simply find arrangements that don't require a long drive.

I think that as gas prices increase that we will notice a refinement of the term "long drive". I know that to some a long drive is anything over 2-3 hours, but if gas is 6 dollars a gallon, suddenly a long drive may become much shorter.

At any rate memorial day in Austin definitely feels like the calm before the storm...the markets are closed in the US, gasoline is steady here at 3.89-3.79 a gallon, and people seem to be adjusting so far to driving less for special occasions.

This is not a big deal though. The real question is whether people will be able to adjust to driving less for work, school, shopping and other essential trips. We'll see on Tuesday...

Addiction

Even though the national average for gasoline is topping $4 a gallon, Austinites haven't quite gotten there...yet. Around town gas fluctuates from 3.79 to 3.89. As gasoline prices are hitting the American consumer, politicians are quick with lame solutions, excuses and are generally adept at doing what amounts to nothing.

Since the problem has just burst in view for most of the population, I would like to posit that we can frame this response in a grief/addiction mentality. I realize I'm not the first to suggest this concept of a civilization withdrawing its reliance on a natural resource but I think its important to be aware of what's going on. I don't subscribe to a rigid sequence of emotions in a grief state, but I do believe there are enough similarities to warrant further examination.

Politicians are essentially in a bargaining state, suggesting solutions that don't fundamentally accept the reality of what is going on. We could drill in environmentally sensitive areas, and we could return to older wells (here in the US). I doubt very much that any of this will stop the decline of American Oil production. Remember that we use close to 20 million barrels of oil per day. The wells that have been proposed are all on the magnitude of 1-5 billion barrels of oil total, most being under or around 1 billion. This amounts to 100 days of consumption, hardly worth destroying the last vestiges of American wilderness.

A better solution would be to cut consumption, to dump money into renewable resources, and to commit to using an increasing amount of renewables per year. This is problematic for the addict, however, because it acknowledges the fundamental reality; that oil production is not keeping up with demand, and that will probably be the toughest part about acknowledging peak oil for US politicians.

One of the hallmarks of any successful organism/organization is its ability to adapt. Right now America is losing BIG TIME in its ability to adapt to the changing geologic reality. We will see if America can psychologically cope with peak oil, recover and regain our status as a world leader.

Our past investment in freeways, in cars, in suburbia and far-fling working/living arrangements make this change extremely difficult to make. The front lines of peak oil in America will definitely be played out in the suburbs and around 'interstate culture' and even with high gas prices people are still driving, BBQing and life is going on as before....we'll see how long our nation can sustain that.

The Crude Awakening

I've got a secret: I love MSNBC.com, not because I think its got factual information per se, but I think its actually a good gauge of conventional wisdom, and a good way to understand what kind of information the population at large is consuming.

From an article today:
"But the impact of the [gas/oil] price surge already is being widely felt. And if prices go
much higher, the damage to the U.S. economy will be deeper and wider than the fallout from the run-up so far."

We hear it again and again, the mantra about gas prices, gas prices and its something that directly impacts people. From the same article:
"Economists estimate that every additional penny at the pump takes roughly $1 billion out of overall spending. "

Now i don't know if thats true, but think about the scale of gas stations across the US, about how much we drive and fill our tanks...and you can see that it very well could be true. Down the street on Riverside and S. Congress, gas went up 10 cents today. Does that mean, given a price hike across the US, that 10 billion was just taken out of overall US spending? Maybe that over simplistic, but to me the 1 cent = 1 billion less consumer spending is a great way to talk to people about peak oil. Gas prices is a great way to talk to people about peak oil.

We have to realize how peak oil is gathering on the horizon: as a massive economic slowdown. This is how people will experience the first waves of peak oil. And the crazy thing is: we may not have peaked.

So perhaps the peak oil movement needs to start examining how peak oil is affecting people, and tailor our message to address people's concerns. If we are a movement, then we need supporters to actually bring about change. And though talk of statistics and flow rates might be factual, they will never win over large numbers of people.

We need to STOP talking to people's brains, and start talking to their guts. We don't need to lie or engage in hyperbole, since the problem is already here. We simply need to engage people on a level where they will listen, and then allow their interest to propel them to investigate our claims further.

On thing is for sure: the peak oil movement needs to mark May 2008 as a turning point in the long history of humanity's relationship to oil. This marks the beginning of a new era, and probably people will look back and date the start of the 21rst century to this year, since the 21rst century will be characterized by scarcity of resources, and May 2008 was when the industrialized world started to wake from the energy binge that has characterized the last 50 years.....

A barrel of oil just hit $133

At least at the time of this writing, oil has just risen 4 dollars to 133 a barrel. Here in Austin, I-35 is still packed with cars, and everyone is making their plans for memorial day. With the price of oil, I can't imagine a memorial day more weighed down by economic concerns. I've lived through recessions before, but this has a different feeling, like the winnowing of the light before an extended period of decline. But for the most part no one seems terribly concerned, even though gas prices are at record highs. I guess past experience has shown us that the price of gas always goes down, even though I doubt that will be the case in this scenario....

I read MSNBC everyday, and basically the entire top part of the site seems to be dedicated to Peak Oil issues:
-Fed Sees Slower Growth, Higher Unemployment
-American Airlines to start charging 15 dollars for the first checked bag (offset high fuel costs)
-Oil Execs. defend massive profits
-Gas prices kill your budget? Try a bicycle

And yet peak oil is STILL rarely mentioned. Wow. I'm not sure what it will take, but the authors of MSNBC.com are going to have to get out of denial and stop cheerleading and face the harsh reality of an energy-constrained world. Its about time.

Welcome to Crude Awakening Austin!

The inaugural blog of crude awakening austin! Stay tuned for more local blogging about peak oil's effect here in Austin....